The Williams Radar — Weekly Journal W17 · 2026

Inaugural Edition · April 25, 2026

The Number of the Week

44 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 17.3% of the universe.

The model sees selective opportunity, not a broad rally. Most signals are S1 (early momentum). Zero pure S2 signals this week — meaning no ticker has completed the full confirmation pattern. The market is in early accumulation mode, not broad entry.

Follow-Up — Previous Week

This is the inaugural edition of the Radar Journal. There is no prior week to report on.

Starting with W18, this section will document what happened with every ticker named the previous week. No edits. No omissions. The record is the product.

W17 Candidates — Category A

The 9 tickers the model flagged as priority for W18 monitoring. Ordered by historical price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W18 (April 28 – May 2).
If GIS, BSX, NKE, or CLX cross to S2, they will be the first formal entries of the cycle.

S2 Signals — Week 17

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week. Zero tickers completed the full two-bar confirmation pattern.

This is not a red flag. It is information. When the first pure S2 signals appear, they will carry more weight precisely because the base was built slowly. The model requires two consecutive confirming bars — patience is the design, not the limitation.

S2 Degraded — 17 Tickers

An S2 Degraded signal means the ticker completed the full S2 pattern at some point in recent weeks — both bars confirmed — but the configuration has since expired. The momentum window closed before price followed through decisively.

These are not entry candidates for the patient investor. Entering an S2 Degraded position means chasing a move that already happened, not anticipating one that is building. The reversal risk is elevated; the setup is gone.

They appear here for one reason: transparency. Every confirmed S2 — whether it led to a move or not — is documented in the public record.

Notable: QCOM at p25% is the one name worth monitoring for a potential S1 re-base. If the model sees a fresh S1 develop from current levels, it re-enters the active watch list. Until then, it is a degraded signal — not an entry.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

12 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. These are the names to watch heading into W18 and W19.

NVDA and CRM are the highest-profile names on this list. If either crosses to S1 in the coming weeks, it will be a notable signal — not because they are "good companies," but because the model will be seeing them in zones that historically precede momentum recoveries.

ABT (Abbott Laboratories) also deserves attention: at p0% with a red AC bar — it is approaching but not yet there. One of the more interesting setups heading into W18.

The Universe

254 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Universe Inclusion Criteria

Not every publicly traded company belongs in the universe. The Radar applies four filters to determine which tickers earn a place in the weekly scan:

1. Market cap ≥ $5 billion — Large-cap only. Small and micro-cap names generate signals, but their lower liquidity and higher volatility make the pattern unreliable for the patient investor.

2. Dividend ≥ 1.5% — A minimum yield threshold. Dividend-paying companies carry an embedded institutional buyer — income funds, pensions, and endowments that step in when yield becomes attractive relative to alternatives. That structural demand is part of what makes the signal work.

3. Beta ≤ 1.1 — Tickers with beta above this threshold amplify market noise rather than reflecting it. The model performs best on names that move with the market, not ones that multiply it.

4. At least 5 years of historical data available — Pattern recognition requires depth. A ticker with fewer than 5 years of weekly data does not have enough history to validate the signal.

Inclusion rule: a ticker must meet at least 3 of these 4 criteria to be added to the universe. No single criterion is an absolute veto — the combination is what matters.

The universe is not static. It expands incrementally as new sectors are validated. Every addition follows the same criteria. Every addition is documented publicly when it enters the scan.

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 27
• S2 degraded: 17
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 43

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

GIS · General Mills, Inc.

Why GIS this week: It sits at p0% — the absolute floor of its 52-week price range — with an active S1 signal. Of the 254 tickers in the universe, none is more depressed on a historical percentile basis while simultaneously showing a momentum configuration. That combination is rare. It earns the first deep dive of the Radar Journal.

The Business

General Mills is one of the world's largest packaged food companies. Founded in 1866, headquartered in Minneapolis. It operates in over 100 countries.

Core brands: Cheerios, Lucky Charms, Wheaties, Nature Valley, Häagen-Dazs, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury, Annie's, Blue Buffalo (pet food), Old El Paso.

Segments (FY2025):

• North America Retail (~65% of revenue)
• Pet (~17%) — Blue Buffalo, acquired 2018
• North America Foodservice (~10%)
• International (~8%)

Revenue: ~$19.9B | Operating income: ~$2.8B | FCF: ~$2.3B

Why Is It at a 5-Year Low?

GIS has faced three converging pressures since 2022:

1. Volume erosion from GLP-1 drugs
The Ozempic/Wegovy narrative hit packaged food hard. The thesis: as millions take GLP-1 agonists, appetite decreases, snack consumption drops, cereal volumes fall. The market re-rated the entire consumer staples sector on this thesis. Whether the GLP-1 impact on food volumes is permanent, temporary, or overstated remains genuinely uncertain — the market has priced in permanent damage.

2. Private label competition
Post-pandemic price sensitivity drove consumers toward store-brand alternatives. GIS's pricing power — once its core moat — weakened in an inflation-scarred environment.

3. Pet segment drag
Blue Buffalo was celebrated at acquisition in 2018 ($8B). In 2024–2025, premium pet food saw trading-down behavior. The segment has underperformed expectations. Impairment concerns have followed.

The Fundamental Picture

Valuation (approximate, W17 2026):

• P/E trailing: ~13x — lowest in over a decade
• P/E forward: ~11–12x
• Dividend yield: ~4.5% — covered ~2x by free cash flow
• EV/EBITDA: ~9x — near trough historical multiples

Balance sheet:

• Long-term debt: ~$11.5B (primarily Blue Buffalo acquisition)
• Debt/EBITDA: ~3.5x — manageable, not comfortable
• FCF: ~$2.3B/year — services debt, funds dividend, enables buybacks

The dividend has been paid continuously since 1898. At current yield and FCF coverage, it is not under structural threat.

What Would Make GIS an S2

For the Williams model to confirm S2 on GIS, two things must happen:

1. The AO (Awesome Oscillator) prints a second consecutive green bar
2. The AC (Accelerator Oscillator) confirms — also green

Catalysts that could drive that confirmation:

• Earnings beat showing volume stabilization (next report: late June 2026)
• Positive signal on Blue Buffalo / pet food category recovery
• GLP-1 narrative softening — early data suggesting overstated food impact
• Simple price stabilization — the model doesn't require a narrative, only the bars

The Patient Investor Case

GIS is not a growth story. It has never been a growth story. It is a cash generation machine that has compounded capital for over a century through dividends, buybacks, and brand maintenance.

At p0% of its 52-week range — ~4.5% dividend yield, ~12x forward earnings, ~$2.3B annual FCF — the market is pricing GIS as if GLP-1 disruption is permanent and the brand portfolio is structurally impaired.

That may be correct. But the historical base rate of packaged food category leaders sustaining this level of pessimism beyond 2–3 years is low. When the math becomes compelling enough, institutional capital finds the floor — not because the narrative changes, but because the numbers don't lie.

The Williams model is detecting that something in the buying pattern is changing at this price level. That is the signal.

Watch for W18

• Does GIS hold above the current floor or break to new lows?
• Does the S1 configuration hold, or degrade?
• Any pre-earnings guidance or management commentary?

If GIS crosses to S2 in W18, it becomes the first formal entry candidate of the Radar Journal's cycle. That moment will be documented here — in public, before it happens.

How the Model Works

The Williams Radar detects momentum configurations based on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) from the Williams trading system.

S1: Early momentum — the first green bar configuration is in place. The setup is building. Not yet an entry.
S2: Full confirmation — a second consecutive green bar confirms the pattern. This is the entry signal for the patient investor.
S2 Degraded: The S2 pattern completed at some point in recent weeks, but the window has since closed. The move was available; it is no longer.

The model does not predict. It does not opine on fundamentals. It does not give price targets.

What it does: scan 254 tickers every week and flag which ones are in configurations that historically precede recovery moves. The track record is built week by week, in public, before the move — not after.

Universe Filter

Before the signal logic runs, the model applies a four-factor inclusion screen:

• Market cap ≥ $5 billion
• Dividend yield ≥ 1.5%
• Beta ≤ 1.1
• At least 5 years of weekly data available

A ticker must meet at least 3 of these 4 criteria to be included in the scan. This filters out names whose signal-to-noise ratio makes the AO/AC pattern unreliable — speculative, illiquid, or too volatile to generate meaningful momentum readings.

The result: 254 tickers across 13 sectors that share a structural profile — large, dividend-bearing, measured volatility — where the Williams oscillators have demonstrated historical edge.

This report is educational information. It is not financial advice or an investment recommendation. The model detects technical patterns — the market decides. Do your own research before making any investment decision.

The Williams Radar · thewilliamsradar.com · Week 17 · 2026