Williams AO/AC Signals W18 2026 — 30 Signals Across 9 Sectors

Edition 2 · 2026-05-01

W17 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W17. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W17 (2026-04-30) to the Thursday close of W18 (2026-05-01). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W17 (2026-04-30). W18 Close = Thursday 2026-05-01. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 2 escalated · 1 lost signal · 6 holding · 0 of 9 positive · Avg Δ: -4.8% · SPY: —

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

30 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 11.8% of the universe.

11.8% signal density is historically elevated. The radar is not generating noise — it's reading genuine deterioration across defensive and cyclical names simultaneously. When staples (XLP: CLX, GIS, PG, HRL), healthcare (XLV: SYK, ABT, MDT), and discretionary (XLY: NKE, HD, LEN) all signal together, the message is the same: earnings season hit the reset button on valuations that had been propped up by pre-tariff optimism. The Fed held rates steady for a third consecutive meeting on April 29 — no cut, no surprise — but Powell's language confirmed that elevated energy prices (Iran conflict) and tariff-driven inflation keep cuts off the table for now. Equity markets closed W18 at record highs on tech strength (S&P 500 fifth straight weekly gain), yet underneath that headline, the non-tech universe is repricing fast. 18 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) while the index prints all-time highs is the divergence that defines this moment.

Follow-Up — W17 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W18 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 30 tickers the model flagged as priority for W19 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W19.

S2 Signals — Week 18

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 7 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

7 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W19.

The Universe

254 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 23
• S2 degraded: 7
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 18

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

CLX — Clorox Company ($87.11 · p0% · S1)

CLX is the headline story of W18 and possibly the most instructive setup in the current radar.

On April 30, Clorox reported Q3 FY2026 results: flat revenue at $1.67B year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $1.64 (a 6.1% beat), but — critically — the company slashed its full-year FY2026 guidance, projecting net sales down approximately 6%. The stock fell -11.7% on the week and now sits at p0%: the lowest price point in its entire 52-week range.

The setup: The AO/AC signal structure for CLX is a textbook S1. The oscillators are negative and aligned — AO below zero, AC confirming. The price is not just near lows; it is at lows. There is no support base below current prices — only air.

The question the radar asks: Is this a bottoming process, or the beginning of a structural multi-year decline?

The bull case: Clorox is a 110-year-old consumer staples franchise. The guidance cut was driven by the GOJO acquisition accounting and VMS divestiture — portfolio restructuring noise, not fundamental brand erosion. Gross margins improved. At p0%, the market has already priced in significant pain. If Q4 FY2026 comes in ahead of the lowered bar, the mean reversion trade could be violent to the upside.

The bear case: A company guiding to -6% net sales in a year where its category (household products) should benefit from tariff-driven consumer trading-down is a red flag. The GOJO deal adds complexity without clarity. And p0% is not a floor — it's a reading that says the stock has never been cheaper in a year, which means every prior holder is underwater.

Radar verdict: S1 holds. No S2 confirmation yet — momentum hasn't turned. CLX stays on the W19 watchlist. The deep dive entry trigger requires AO to start recovering above the zero line, AC to confirm with a second consecutive green bar. Until then, observe, don't act.

Manager Note — W18

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

W18 is a week that will look different depending on which screen you're looking at.

On the index screen: S&P 500 at record highs, Nasdaq at record highs, fifth consecutive week of gains. Tech earnings (implied) carrying the load. Sentiment broadly constructive.

On the radar screen: 30 signals, 18 tickers at structural lows, a scorecard where 0 of 9 prior candidates printed positive, and an average weekly move of -4.8% across names that represent some of the most durable businesses in the U.S. economy.

The divergence is real and worth naming: the market is not broken — AI and large-cap tech are genuinely performing. But the non-tech economy is under pressure from three compounding forces: (1) tariff-driven input cost inflation hitting margins for consumer staples and industrials, (2) earnings resets — CLX, SYK, BSX all delivered Q1 reports that forced guidance revisions or missed estimates, and (3) the Fed confirming there are no rate cuts coming while energy prices remain elevated due to the Iran conflict.

For this system, that environment is fertile. S1 signals at structural lows (p0%–p15%) in high-quality businesses with temporary fundamental headwinds are exactly what the AO/AC method is designed to capture. The key discipline is patience: S1 is an alert, not a trigger. We wait for S2 confirmation before acting.

W19 priority watchlist: CLX (p0%), SYK (p0%), ABT (p0%), GIS (p0%) — all holding S1 at the bottom of their annual ranges. LEN and PG have escalated to S2D and enter the high-attention zone. The setup for W19 is the cleanest the radar has produced since launch.

Stay patient. Let the signal confirm. Size accordingly.

Published: 2026-05-01