Williams AO/AC Signals W19 2026 — 19 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 3 · 2026-05-09

W18 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W18. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W18 (2026-05-01) to the Thursday close of W19 (2026-05-08). Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Result key: ✓ escalation or positive move · ✗ signal lost · — holding/watching. Entry Reference = Thursday close 2026-05-01. W19 Close = Thursday 2026-05-08. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 5 escalated or positive · 4 signals lost · 21 holding/watching · Avg Δ (active S1/S2D): -0.9%

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

19 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 7.5% of the universe.

Signal density dropped from 11.8% (W18) to 7.5% (W19) — a meaningful contraction. This isn't improvement; it's resolution. Many W18 signals either confirmed into S2D (GIS, CRM, PM, TSLA) or degraded out (MOS, MDT, OMC, MCD). The universe is bifurcating: the names with genuine momentum are stepping through the S2 gate, while weaker setups are washing out. What remains are 15 S1 signals — names still in the oversold alert phase — and 4 S2D degraded, waiting to see if the AC cross holds. The structural low names (HRL p0%, GIS p0%, NKE p3%, BSX p0%) are the purest expression of the W19 thesis: quality businesses at maximum pessimism.

Follow-Up — W18 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W19 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The tickers the model flagged as priority for W20 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W20 (2026-05-11 to 2026-05-15).
S2 trigger watch: GIS and CRM are the cleanest S2D setups — if AO begins recovering above zero in W20, S2 pure confirmation is possible.

S2 Signals — Week 19

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 4 Tickers

S2 Degraded = AC has crossed green (momentum shift confirmed) but AO has not yet crossed above zero. The window is open but requires follow-through. These are not entries — they are active watches.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

12 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W20.

XLV (healthcare) dominates the pre-radar with ABT, SYK, ZTS, and MDT all at structural lows without an active signal. A sector-wide healthcare setup is developing — watch for coordinated S1 entries in W20.

The Universe

254 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 15
• S2 degraded: 4
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 30

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

GIS · General Mills, Inc.

Why GIS this week: GIS is the only ticker this week that combines an S2D signal at p0% — the absolute floor of its 52-week range — in a Tier 2 consumer staples name with a long historical win rate in this radar system.

The Business. General Mills is a $35B revenue consumer packaged goods company. Core brands include Cheerios, Wheaties, Nature Valley, Häagen-Dazs, Blue Buffalo (pet), Pillsbury, and Progresso. It operates across North America, Europe, and Asia with ~33,000 employees. The business is structurally stable — people eat breakfast every day regardless of the macro environment.

Why depressed. GIS has been in a multi-quarter compression. The issues are well-known: (1) post-pandemic volume normalization — consumers over-stocked during COVID and are working down pantry inventory, (2) private label competition intensifying as consumers trade down in response to 3 years of food inflation, (3) pet food segment (Blue Buffalo) disappointing relative to acquisition expectations. The stock is at its lowest price in the 52-week window and, by extension, has underperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 40+ percentage points over the past two years.

The Setup. The AO/AC structure is the key: AO is deeply negative at -8.83, meaning the 5-period momentum is clearly below the 34-period trend. But the AC just crossed green this week (AC = +0.087) — the first green bar on the oscillator, which in the Williams method is the early sign that selling momentum is exhausting. This is the S2D condition. Not a buy signal — an alert that the inflection may be starting.

Risk factors. (1) Pet food is the wildcard: if Blue Buffalo numbers continue to disappoint, GIS may need to write down the acquisition. (2) Private label pressure is structural, not cyclical. (3) FX headwinds on international revenue persist. (4) At p0%, there is no technical support — the stock is making new lows in the context of the 52-week window.

The patient investor case. GIS trades at ~16x forward earnings and yields approximately 4.2% at current prices. For a business with 100+ year brand equity and a recession-resistant product portfolio, that combination — extreme pessimism + income yield + S2D signal — is historically the setup that generates above-average forward returns over a 6-12 month horizon. The Williams system doesn't call the bottom; it identifies when selling momentum starts to exhaust in quality names. GIS at p0% with an AC cross is exactly that setup.

Radar verdict: S2D confirmed. AO remains deeply negative — patience required. If AO begins recovering above zero in W20, this transitions to a potential S2 pure confirmation. Watch: close above $35.50 on above-average volume would be a constructive signal. Stop reference: a close below $33.00 would invalidate the thesis.

Manager Note — W19

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

W19 delivered a subtle but important message: the market is not monolithic.

The headline story is the S2D escalations — four tickers confirmed momentum shifts this week. TSLA's +9.6% move stands out as the most dramatic, though at p83% it is a very different risk profile than GIS at p0%. The TSLA S2D is momentum-driven; the GIS S2D is value-driven. The system doesn't distinguish — both meet the mechanical criteria — but the manager must.

The contraction in total signal count from 30 (W18) to 19 (W19) reflects a normal post-spike resolution. The W18 spike was driven by earnings season resets; W19 shows the universe digesting that information. Names with genuine oversold conditions persist (the p0% cluster in healthcare and staples). Names that were caught in the general selling but had no fundamental thesis are washing out.

The XLV pre-radar concentration is worth watching closely. ABT, SYK, ZTS, and MDT are all at structural lows without an active S1 signal — meaning the oscillators haven't aligned yet. When four names in a single sector cluster at p0% simultaneously, the sector is either in structural decline or experiencing maximum temporary pessimism. Healthcare's situation — Medicare reimbursement uncertainty, procedure volume recovery, supply chain normalization — suggests the latter. The W20 radar scan will be decisive.

No positions added this week. The system requires S2 pure confirmation before any entry consideration. Current posture: observing, waiting, documenting.

Published: Friday, May 9, 2026