Williams AO/AC Signals W20 2026 — 12 Signals Across 7 Sectors

Edition 4 · 2026-05-15

W19 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W19. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W19 (2026-05-14) to the Thursday close of W20 (2026-05-15). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W19 (2026-05-14). W20 Close = Thursday 2026-05-15. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 3 escalated · 9 lost signal · 7 holding · 6 of 19 positive · Avg Δ: -1.5% · SPY: —

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper · Signal: S2 Puro p26% · Sector: XLP

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

12 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 4.7% of the universe.

Signal density collapsed from 7.5% (W19) to 4.7% (W20) — the lowest reading in this journal's four-week history. This is not recovery; it's washout. Of the 19 names tracked from W19, only 3 escalated upward and 9 lost their signal entirely — an unusually high attrition rate. What remains after this flush is a smaller, harder set: names where the oversold condition has persisted through the noise. The pre-radar bench of 23 tickers at structural lows is the more telling number this week. The pipeline is building; the signal gate hasn't opened yet.

Follow-Up — W19 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W20 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 12 tickers the model flagged as priority for W21 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W21.

S2 Signals — Week 20

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

S2 Degraded — 2 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

23 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W21.

The Universe

~375 tickers scanned · 254 active (post-ranging filter) · 13 sectors The full universe contains ~375 unique tickers across 13 sector ETFs + a Tier 1 outlier list. ~120 tickers are excluded each week by the ranging filter (lateralization <15% over 12 weeks). The 254 figure reflects active, non-ranging names analyzed this edition. Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 9
• S2 degraded: 2
• S2 pure: 1
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 5

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

NKE · Nike, Inc.

Why NKE this week: NKE is the only ticker this week that combines an S2D signal at p0% — the absolute floor of its 52-week range — in a Tier 1 global consumer brand with a category-defining competitive position. When the world's most recognized athletic brand is trading at 52-week lows with AC crossing green, the system is flagging something worth examining closely.

The Business. Nike is a $51B revenue global athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment company. Core brands include Nike, Jordan, and Converse. It operates in 190+ countries with a direct-to-consumer shift underway — digital and owned-retail channels now represent a meaningful share of revenue. The business carries a brand moat that is structurally durable across economic cycles. Athletes don't stop wanting Air Jordans because the Fed raises rates.

Why depressed. NKE has been compressing for 18+ months. The thesis against it is clear: (1) the China recovery has stalled — Nike's Greater China segment, which was expected to rebound post-COVID, has underperformed as domestic Chinese brands (Anta, Li-Ning) have taken meaningful share in the mid-tier; (2) the direct-to-consumer pivot created short-term wholesale channel friction — major retail partners reduced inventory orders during the transition; (3) gross margin compression from elevated freight and input costs, though this is normalizing; (4) top-line deceleration in North America as post-COVID demand normalization runs its course. The stock is down approximately 55% from its 2021 peak. At p0%, it is at the lowest price in the 52-week window.

The Setup. The AO/AC structure mirrors the GIS setup from W19 — arguably more cleanly. AO is negative, reflecting that 5-period momentum is below the 34-period trend. The AC crossed green this week, the first constructive bar after the prolonged compression. This is the S2D condition. Not a buy signal — a mechanical alert that selling momentum is beginning to exhaust in a quality name at depressed prices. The signal appearing at p0% eliminates ambiguity about where we are in the range.

Risk factors. (1) China is the biggest variable — if the domestic brand competition continues to accelerate, Nike's long-term market share in the world's fastest-growing athletic market is structurally impaired. (2) The Jordan brand, which commands premium pricing, faces copycat pressure from newer lifestyle brands. (3) Currency headwinds persist on international revenues. (4) At p0%, there is no technical support from the recent range — the stock is at new lows by definition.

The patient investor case. NKE trades at approximately 22x forward earnings — compressed relative to its 10-year average of 30x+ — with a yield of ~2.2% at current prices. For a business with category-defining brand equity in a structurally growing global market (sports and wellness), this combination — multi-year compression, p0% reading, AC cross, sector leader status — is historically the setup that generates the strongest forward returns in the Williams system. The system identifies when selling momentum exhausts in quality names. NKE at p0% with an S2D cross is exactly that setup.

Radar verdict: S2D confirmed. AO remains negative — patience required. If AO begins recovering toward zero in W21, this transitions toward potential S2 pure consideration. Watch: a close above $44.00 on above-average volume would be a constructive signal. Stop reference: a close below $39.00 would suggest the thesis requires reassessment.

Manager Note — W20

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

W20 delivered a washout, and that is useful information.

Nine of nineteen tracked names lost their signal this week — the AC flipped positive without the AO recovering enough to sustain the setup. In the Williams framework, this isn't failure; it's the system working correctly. A signal that resolves without triggering an entry consideration costs nothing. The discipline is staying out when the mechanics don't confirm.

What's notable is the shape of what remains. The 12 active signals are concentrated at two extremes: the deeply oversold (NKE p0%, HRL p0%, TMUS p23%, BKNG p24%) and the more elevated (PLTR p63%, RTX p66%, TKO p73%, LLY p84%). The mid-range is thin. This is a bifurcated radar — distressed value names on one end, momentum names that are merely pulling back on the other. They require different read frames.

The pre-radar bench of 23 tickers at structural lows is the most important data point this week. This is the pipeline that will feed the next wave of active signals. The concentration is striking: six names in XLP (PG, GIS, CLX, KHC, KMB, SYY), four in XLV (MDT, ABT, BSX, ZTS), three in XLC (CMCSA, CHTR, OMC). Consumer staples and healthcare are both sectors where compression at these price levels historically presents asymmetric setups. When 23 quality names are simultaneously at structural lows without an active signal, it means the oscillators haven't aligned yet — but the raw material is accumulating.

The standout from W19's tracking is PM (+10.9%). The signal was lost because the AC flipped positive — which in this case means the name moved sharply in the system's anticipated direction but the momentum structure resolved faster than expected. PM was a W18 S1 that escalated to S2D in W19 and then resolved in a single week. That's a clean, fast pattern. Worth filing as a reference for future high-paced S2D names in defensive sectors.

No positions added. W21 scan will be decisive for the XLP pre-radar cluster. If three or more staples names step through the S1 gate simultaneously, that would represent a sector-level signal worth treating differently from individual name setups.

Published: Friday, May 16, 2026