Williams AO/AC Signals W21 2026 — 13 Signals Across 7 Sectors

Edition 5 · May 22, 2026

W20 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W20. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W20 (2026-05-15) to the Thursday close of W21 (2026-05-22). Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 11 of 12 Category A candidates positive · 1 escalation (PLTR → S2D) · Avg Δ: +3.9%

Entry Reference = Thursday close of W20 (2026-05-15). W21 Close = Thursday 2026-05-22.
Result key: Signal escalated · Signal lost · Still holding.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper · Signal: S2 Puro (now resolved) · Sector: XLP · Position held per plan — signal resolution with price advance is expected behavior for a paper entry at S2 confirmation.

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

13 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 5.1% of the universe.

Signal density recovered from 4.7% (W20) to 5.1% (W21) — a modest uptick that masks a meaningful structural shift. The composition changed: 12 S1 names plus 1 S2D (PLTR), with 4 new entrants at structural lows carrying fresh S1 conditions (ABT, BSX, CLX, MOS). The universe is not expanding in signal breadth yet, but the names coming online are higher-quality setups — ABT, BSX, and MOS represent established businesses at genuinely depressed price levels. The pre-radar bench at 13 tickers means the pipeline heading into W22 is healthy. The system is loading.

Follow-Up — W20 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W21 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

13 tickers the model flagged as priority for W22 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W22.
S2D watch: PLTR is the sole S2D candidate. Entry consideration if AO begins recovering. ABT, BSX, and MOS at structural lows are the highest-priority S2 escalation candidates for next week.

S2 Signals — Week 21

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week. No ticker has both AO negative and AC making a confirmed green cross with AO recovery underway.

S2 Degraded — 1 Ticker

PLTR carried its AO/AC cross from this week but AO has not yet turned positive — the degraded designation reflects that the confirmation window is open but not complete.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

13 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W22.

Notable: NKE and HRL drop directly from Category A to pre-radar after signal resolution — both bounced sharply but remain near historical lows. The pre-radar bench of 13 names is one of the larger readings since inception.

The Universe

254 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 12
• S2 degraded: 1
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 13

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

ABT · Abbott Laboratories

Why ABT this week: ABT enters W21 at p6% — six percentile points above the absolute floor of its 52-week range — with a fresh S1 signal and nearLows confirmed. Of the four new structural-low entrants this week, Abbott is the most institutionally significant: a diversified medical device and diagnostics company with $22B+ in annual revenue, a 52-year dividend growth streak, and a business model that generates recurring revenue across hospital systems worldwide. When a name of this caliber prints at a 52-week low with AO turning negative and AC beginning to flatten, the system pays attention.

The Business. Abbott Laboratories is one of the largest and most diversified healthcare companies in the world. Its four segments — Medical Devices, Diagnostics, Established Pharmaceuticals, and Nutritional Products — generate revenue across 160+ countries. The Medical Devices segment (its largest) includes FreeStyle Libre, the world's leading continuous glucose monitor, which has compounded at double digits for years. Diagnostics built on COVID-era infrastructure now serves a global rapid-testing market. The nutritional segment (Ensure, Similac) is a steady cash generator. This is not a speculative name — it's a business that has compounded shareholder value for decades across multiple economic cycles.

Why depressed. ABT peaked near $135 in 2022 and has been in a multi-year compression. The primary drag: COVID testing tailwinds have normalized — diagnostics revenue that ran at elevated levels during 2020–2022 has stepped down materially. The market priced in a structural decline when it was a cyclical normalization. Additionally, the infant formula recall (2022) left reputational and legal overhang that has since largely resolved. FreeStyle Libre, while growing, faces increasing competition from Dexcom in the CGM space. Currency headwinds on international revenue have been persistent. None of these are existential — they are operational friction in a durable business. At p6%, the market is pricing in a level of sustained impairment that Abbott's fundamentals do not support.

The Setup. AO crossed below zero during W21 — momentum has turned negative, meaning the 5-period midpoint average is below the 34-period midpoint. This is the S1 condition. AC has not yet confirmed (still negative), so this is a monitoring position, not an entry signal. The mechanical question is: does AC follow with a green bar in W22 or W23? If yes at these price levels, the S2D condition triggers. The structural context — p6%, nearLows, Tier 2 universe — places this in the highest-probability bucket for a sustained oversold reading rather than a signal false start.

Risk factors. (1) If FreeStyle Libre loses meaningful CGM market share to Dexcom G7 or future competitors, the devices segment's growth thesis weakens. (2) Abbott has $8B+ in debt — not excessive, but worth monitoring in a higher-for-longer rate environment. (3) Emerging market currency risk: ~50% of revenue is international, and a stronger dollar compounds the headwind. (4) The diagnostics normalization could extend further if the global health spending cycle contracts.

The patient investor case. ABT at p6% with a fresh S1 signal is a setup that the Williams system was designed to surface. The business is fundamentally sound, the valuation compression is cycle-driven rather than structural, and the dividend growth streak (52 consecutive years of increases) provides a floor of institutional sponsorship. If AC confirms in W22, this becomes the leading S2 candidate in the universe. Patient investors — those willing to hold through potential further compression before the AO recovery — are being offered a Tier 2 medical device compounder at a level it has not traded at in years. The system flags it; the investor decides.

Manager Note — W21

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The W20 scorecard was the best single week this journal has recorded: 11 of 12 candidates positive, average gain of +3.9% in five trading days. That result deserves a measured reading — a strong week in a bear-market rally is noise until the signal cohort confirms. What it does tell us is that the names the system is surfacing at depressed levels have genuine mean-reversion potential, even on short timeframes.

The structural picture is more cautious. The signal composition this week is biased heavily toward defense and healthcare — ABT, BSX, LMT, NOC, RTX — which reflects the broader market's rotation out of growth and into defensives. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) continue to show no signal pressure, consistent with their elevated price levels. The XLY pre-radar bench (NKE, HD, LOW, LEN) is building — consumer discretionary at structural lows is either a recession signal or a setup. We won't know which for weeks.

PLTR's escalation to S2D at p64% is the tactical name for W22. This is not a structural-low setup — it's a momentum-oversold condition in a high-beta name. Risk-adjusted, it belongs in a different category than the healthcare names near their 52-week floors. Treat accordingly.

The SYY paper position (+5.1% this week) is held per plan. Target range $84–$94 intact.

Published: Friday, May 22, 2026