Williams AO/AC Signals W22 2026 — 16 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 6 · May 29, 2026

W21 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W21. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W21 (2026-05-22) to the Thursday close of W22 (2026-05-29). Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W21 (2026-05-22). W22 Close = Thursday 2026-05-29. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 3 escalated (TMUS, BKNG, IBM) · 2 lost signal (BSX, PLTR) · 7 holding · 6 of 12 positive · Avg Δ: +1.5%

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

16 active signals across 254 tickers analyzed — 6.3% of the universe.

Signal density ticked up from 5.1% (W21) to 6.3% (W22), the highest reading since W18. The composition is notable: 12 S1 names and 4 S2D entries, with healthcare (XLV) now carrying 4 active signals simultaneously — MDT, ABT, SYK, and INSM. MDT enters the board at p1%, the lowest percentile reading in the universe this week, printing at its absolute 52-week low. The pre-radar bench expanded from 13 to 15 names, including BSX at p0% immediately after losing its S1 signal — a setup worth monitoring closely. The system is in an accumulation posture. Structural lows are multiplying faster than signals are resolving.

Follow-Up — W21 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W22 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 16 tickers the model flagged as priority for W23 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W23.
S2D watch: 4 active S2D names (TMUS, HRL, BKNG, IBM). MDT at p1% is the leading S2 escalation candidate — if AC crosses green next week, it becomes the highest-priority entry in the universe.

S2 Signals — Week 22

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week. No ticker has both AO negative and AC making a confirmed green cross with AO recovery underway.

S2 Degraded — 4 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

15 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W23.

Notable: BSX drops from S1 to p0% pre-radar — signal resolved but the price hasn't recovered. XLY carries 5 names in the pre-radar bench (NKE, LEN, AZO, LOW, and BKNG already in S2D) — consumer discretionary is compressing broadly.

The Universe

254 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 12
• S2 degraded: 4
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 15

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

MDT · Medtronic plc

Why MDT this week: Medtronic enters W22 at p1% — printing at its absolute 52-week low of $73.81, down 29% from its January high of $103.71. Of all 254 names in the universe, MDT carries the lowest price percentile reading this week. When the largest pure-play medical device company in the world — $32B in annual revenue, devices inside tens of millions of patients — lands at its annual floor with fresh AO/AC deterioration, the system flags it. We pay attention.

The Business. Medtronic is the largest dedicated medical device company on earth by revenue. Its four operating segments span the full spectrum of implantable and interventional medicine: Cardiovascular (pacemakers, defibrillators, structural heart — ~$4.3B/quarter), Medical Surgical (surgical robotics, patient monitoring — ~$2.2B/quarter), Neuroscience (deep brain stimulators, spinal cord stimulators, ENT — ~$2.3B/quarter), and Diabetes (insulin pumps, continuous glucose monitoring — ~$650M/quarter). The company serves over 150 countries, generates roughly 50% of revenue outside the US, and has paid a growing dividend for 47 consecutive years — one of only a handful of MedTech names with Dividend Aristocrat status.

Why depressed. The decline from $103 to $73 over five months reflects a convergence of sector-level and company-specific headwinds. At the macro level, the entire XLV complex has been under pressure: interest rate sensitivity compresses multiples on high-quality, lower-growth healthcare names, and sector rotation out of defensives accelerated in Q1 2026 as risk appetite returned. At the company level, MDT faces three well-documented headwinds: (1) the ongoing ramp of its surgical robotics platform (Hugo) has been slower than analysts projected, with multiple quarters of below-consensus Surgical segment results; (2) the Diabetes segment is in competitive transition — the 780G insulin pump and CGM integration are gaining share but the cadence has been uneven; and (3) tariff exposure on manufacturing inputs (significant operations in Ireland, Puerto Rico, and Costa Rica) created incremental cost uncertainty that management has been conservative about quantifying. None of these are existential — but together, they explain why an institution-grade healthcare franchise is sitting at a 52-week low when the broader market recovered.

The Setup. At $73.81, MDT trades at approximately 14× forward earnings and 2.8× revenue — multiples that are at or below the low end of its 10-year historical range. The dividend yield at current price is approximately 4.0%, the highest it has been in over a decade for this name. AO is deeply negative and AC has not yet crossed; the system is flagging deterioration, not entry. The setup we are watching for W23 is the AC cross — when the shorter momentum oscillator inflects toward green while AO remains below zero, that is the S2 trigger. The near-lows flag is already set. The technical setup is in place. The fundamental case for patient capital is straightforward: Medtronic at 14× earnings with a 4% yield and an installed base that generates recurring procedure revenue is not a speculative situation. The question is timing, not thesis.

Risk factors. Near-term: Q4 FY2026 earnings (reporting cycle typically in late May/June) carry execution risk on the Hugo ramp and Diabetes transition. Currency headwinds from USD strength are a persistent drag. Any further tariff escalation affecting medical device component costs would be a negative catalyst. Structural: the surgical robotics space is increasingly competitive (Intuitive, J&J's Ottava, Stryker's Mako) — Hugo's long-term market share trajectory is genuinely uncertain. Management credibility on guidance has been tested over the past 6 quarters.

The patient investor case. MDT is a franchise business at a distressed multiple. The 47-year dividend growth streak is not an accident — it reflects a business that generates durable cash flows across economic cycles because its products treat conditions (arrhythmia, Parkinson's, diabetes, spinal stenosis) that do not respond to recessions. When a name of this quality prints at p1% with AO deteriorating, the system is not calling a bottom — it is identifying where the compression is happening and waiting for momentum confirmation. If MDT's AC crosses green in W23, this becomes the highest-priority S2 candidate in the universe, with an entry reference in the low-to-mid $70s.

Manager Note — W22

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The week's signal board is delivering a clear message: the compression in healthcare is accelerating. Four XLV names carry active S1 signals (MDT, ABT, SYK, INSM), and BSX dropped into pre-radar at p0% immediately after losing its signal — price did not recover. This is sector-level distress, not idiosyncratic noise. XLV underperformance versus SPY has persisted for 10+ weeks, and the model is now surfacing the names bearing the most weight: large-cap devices and diagnostics. MDT at an absolute 52-week low is the headline, but the broader picture — ABT at p3%, CLX at p4%, GIS at p2%, ZTS at p3%, ISRG at p4% — suggests that defensive consumer staples and healthcare are being rotated out of systematically. IBM's +17% single-week move (S1 → S2D at p95%) is a useful counterpoint: the model does not discriminate by valuation, and occasionally a name at structural highs earns a degraded signal after a momentum exhaustion move. That context aside, the primary posture this week is patient accumulation. The pipeline is loaded. The S2 trigger for MDT, if it arrives in W23, will be the first structural-low healthcare entry since ABT has been on the board. The manager is watching, not acting yet.

Published: Thursday, May 29, 2026