Williams AO/AC Signals W23 2026 — 34 Signals Across 10 Sectors

Edition 7 · 2026-06-05

📡 Universe expansion — W23 re-issue. This edition was regenerated against the full 388-ticker universe (13 sectors). The original W23 auto-run scanned a stale ~255-ticker set: the scanner had been running since before the universe was last expanded and never reloaded it from disk. The scanner has since been restarted to hold the complete universe, and every future weekly scan (W24 onward) runs against all 388 tickers automatically. Signal count rose from 22 to 34 with the broader coverage.

W22 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W22. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W22 (2026-05-29) to the Thursday close of W23 (2026-06-05). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W22 (2026-05-29). W23 Close = Thursday 2026-06-05. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 3 escalated · 4 lost signal · 8 holding · 6 of 15 positive · Avg Δ: -1.1% · SPY: —

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

34 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 8.8% of the universe.

The first full-universe scan changes the picture in a meaningful way. With 255 tickers we were seeing 22 signals — a reasonable read. With 388, we get 34: not just more names, but genuinely different sectors. The 133 new tickers brought in names like CAG (p0%), CHTR (p0%), HD (p13%), and NKE (p3%) that were structurally compressed but invisible to the model. The real signal density across the broader universe is higher than we thought.

More significant than the count: the pre-radar swelled to 31 tickers at or below p15 with no active signal yet. Six of them sit in XLP (GIS, KHC, KMB, CPB, TAP, STZ) — much of the consumer staples sector is approaching the signal threshold simultaneously. Six more sit in XLC (CMCSA, TMUS, TTD, SNAP, RBLX, ZG). That kind of sectoral clustering in pre-radar is a setup worth watching carefully heading into W24.

The breadth conclusion: the market is not in isolated distress. The compression is structural and multi-sector.

Follow-Up — W22 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W23 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 34 tickers the model flagged as priority for W24 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W24.

S2 Signals — Week 23

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 5 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

31 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W24.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 29
• S2 degraded: 5
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 18

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

MOS — Mosaic Company (XLB · p5%)

MOS is the standout of the week: it escalated from S1 to S2D after a -6.9% move, now sitting at p5% of its 52-week range. Mosaic is the largest North American producer of potash and phosphate — the two critical inputs in commercial fertilizers. The business is structurally exposed to global agricultural demand cycles and commodity pricing pressure.

The technical setup is clean: AO turned negative weeks ago, and this week AC crossed over — the two-oscillator confirmation that defines an S2D. The price is near the floor of a year's range. What's notable is the persistence: MOS was in S1 in W21, held in S1 for W22, and now escalated. Three consecutive weeks of downward pressure without a reversal signal means this isn't noise — it's a trend.

The macro context matters here. Fertilizer pricing has been in a multi-quarter compression following the post-Ukraine spike in 2022. Brazilian planting season demand has not provided the lift the sector needed. Mosaic's margins are contracting. The stock is behaving exactly as the sector fundamentals would predict.

The S2D flag does not mean "buy now." It means the model is confirming that the downward momentum is synchronized between the two oscillators. For a mean-reversion entry strategy, this is the setup: structural lows, momentum confirmed, sector under pressure. The decision discipline is to wait for the S2 Pure signal — when both oscillators cross back — before considering an entry. Until then, MOS sits on the watchlist with an active flag.

Manager Note — W23

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

This was a recovery week for the market, but the scorecard tells a more nuanced story. The average return across our 15 W22 candidates was -1.1% — slightly negative even as the broader market moved higher. That divergence is structural, not coincidental.

The four names that lost their signals — TMUS (-5.0%), IBM (-4.4%), BKNG (-0.7%), HRL (+1.7%) — tell different stories. Three of them — IBM, BKNG and HRL — expired because their AC flipped positive: the momentum indicator turned up and out of the setup regardless of price (IBM and BKNG kept falling; HRL bounced +1.7%), which means the selling pressure is dissipating. TMUS is the exception — it fell -5.0% and its AC turned red, losing the signal for the opposite reason. The model doesn't require a price recovery to expire a signal — it reads momentum, not return. When AC turns, the setup is gone regardless of where price went. That's the system working correctly.

The eight names that held their signals despite a positive week (MDT +10.6%, ABT +6.4%, CLX +4.6%) are the more interesting story. These rallied but not enough to escape their structural lows. MDT is still at p27%. ABT at p13%. CLX at p10%. The compression runs deeper than a single week's recovery can resolve. That's exactly the kind of persistent signal the system is designed to identify.

W23 brings a structural shift in the analysis. With the universe expanded to 388 tickers, we're seeing the full breadth of the compression for the first time. The pre-radar at 31 names — most of them in XLP and XLC — suggests that the consumer staples and communications sectors are approaching coordinated signal generation. If macro conditions hold through W24, we could see a significant cluster of new S1 activations in names like GIS, KMB, CPB, TTD, and CMCSA.

The discipline remains the same: observe, track, wait for S2 Pure before acting. No open positions. The paper portfolio is patient.

Published: 2026-06-05