Williams AO/AC Signals W25 2026 — 40 Signals Across 10 Sectors

Edition 9 · 2026-06-18

W24 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W24. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W24 (2026-06-12) to the Thursday close of W25 (2026-06-18). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W24 (2026-06-12). W25 Close = Thursday 2026-06-18. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 6 escalated · 13 lost signal · 26 holding · 22 of 45 positive · Avg Δ: -0.0% · SPY: —

Análisis de Salidas — Señales W24

🔴 ANÁLISIS — ¿Los 13 nombres que perdieron señal salieron por apreciación real o por ruido?

De los 13 nombres que salieron del radar esta semana, 3 entregaron apreciación real, 4 se movieron dentro del rango de ruido, y 6 salieron por cruces técnicos del AC sin confirmación de precio — o deterioraron adicionalmente.

Resumen: 3 apreciación real (23%) · 4 rango (31%) · 6 sin soporte de precio o deterioro (46%)

El sistema es más preciso en los extremos de compresión: APH, CCL y NCLH eran nombres S2D profundos que se movieron con momentum real. El rango medio de percentil (CLX, MDT, SYK, COO) mostró el riesgo inherente del S2D — el AC puede cruzar técnicamente en un rebote corto del oscilador mientras el precio subyacente sigue cayendo. KR es el caso atípico que merece seguimiento: no perdió la señal porque el setup resolvió — la perdió porque el deterioro se profundizó. Vale la pena monitorear en W26 como continuación de momentum negativo.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

40 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 10.3% of the universe.

W25 delivered 40 active signals — a 13.5% compression from W24's 45. The week's defining pattern: a clean split between names that resolved (13 dropped signal, AC turned positive) and names that dug deeper into bearish territory. FMC led both stories — it was already at p0% in W24, then escalated to S2D this week. That's the radar working exactly as designed: AO stays negative while AC rises from below zero. The question W26 answers is whether this compression holds or releases.

Sector concentration to watch: Healthcare (XLV + IBB + XBI) accounts for 11 of the 40 active signals — 27.5% of the list from a sector that represents ~13% of the S&P. That's a meaningful overweight. When healthcare compresses this broadly, it's either sector-specific headwinds (regulatory, pricing pressure) or early-cycle positioning before a rotation. The AO/AC setup doesn't distinguish between the two — that's the analyst's job.

Follow-Up — W24 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W25 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 40 tickers the model flagged as priority for W26 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W26.

S2 Signals — Week 25

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 9 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

30 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W26.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 31
• S2 degraded: 9
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 22

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

FMC Corporation (FMC) · XLB · p0%

FMC is the cleanest setup in W25. The stock is at p0% — the bottom of its 52-week range — while the AC just crossed above zero for the first time in months. That's the textbook S2D condition: AC momentum is turning while AO remains negative and the price is still compressed. The market hasn't moved yet.

What makes FMC worth watching beyond the signal: it's an agricultural chemicals company in a sector (XLB — Materials) that's been uniformly beaten down. The p0% reading isn't noise; it reflects real fundamental pressure from input cost cycles and global ag demand softness. That's the setup. The signal says the selling pressure may be exhausting itself.

What to watch in W26: Does AO begin turning upward? An AO cross while price stays compressed would confirm the S2 setup. A return to S2 Pure (AO still falling, AC positive) would be the strongest signal available from this system.

Entry framework: This is an observation, not an action. No position. If W26 delivers S2 Pure, a starter position with a stop below the 52-week low would be the logical next step.

Manager Note — W25

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

W25 was a structural consolidation week. The headline is the scorecard: 13 of 45 candidates from W24 lost their signal — which sounds like a problem but is actually the system working. When a stock loses the signal because AC turned positive, that's the compression resolving in the expected direction. The radar identified the setup; the market delivered the move.

The 6 escalations to S2D (FMC, CAG, XYL, HD, DHI, LMT) are the more interesting story. These are names where the AC momentum shift is happening while price stays depressed. They're not resolved — they're escalating. W26 will tell us if AO follows.

One note on the overall signal count: 40 active signals with 9 S2D and 0 S2 Pure means the list is heavy on early-stage setups. When a week has zero S2 Pure, there's nothing to act on from a pure signal standpoint. That's fine. The system's job is to identify compression, not force trades. Patience is the position.

No changes to portfolio. Still paper mode.

Published: 2026-06-18