Williams AO/AC Signals W26 2026 — 29 Signals Across 10 Sectors

Edition 10 · 2026-06-26

W25 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W25. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W25 (2026-06-23) to the Thursday close of W26 (2026-06-26). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W25 (2026-06-23). W26 Close = Thursday 2026-06-26. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 10 escalated · 14 lost signal · 16 holding · 29 of 40 positive · Avg Δ: +3.4% · SPY: —

Análisis de Salidas — Señales W25

🔴 ANÁLISIS — ¿Los 14 nombres que perdieron señal salieron por apreciación real o por ruido?

Resumen: 7 apreciación real (50%) · 1 rango (7%) · 6 sin soporte de precio o deterioro (43%)

Notable: NEM (-7.4%) no perdió la señal porque el setup resolvió — la perdió porque el deterioro se profundizó. Vale la pena monitorear en W26 como continuación de momentum negativo.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

29 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 7.5% of the universe.

W26 delivers a notable compression: 29 signals from 40 last week, a 27.5% contraction in one session. That's not noise — that's the market resolving a significant number of setups simultaneously. The 10 W25 escalations (ZTS, VKTX, IR, MTD, NRG, MLM, EXPE, CBRE, CMG, PH) confirm the pattern: compression was real, and the AC crossed for real reasons.

What stays is telling. The names that survived the purge are either deeply structural — ISRG and ZG at p0%, CHTR and ZTS at p2%, SRPT at p4% — or they're S2D tickers holding up despite the broader resolution. The radar's signal count halving is bullish for those that remain: the weak hands got resolved, the stubborn depressed names are still waiting.

CMG earning the only pure S2 this week is the headline. That's the full confirmation: AO negative, AC crossed above zero, no ranging, near lows. One ticker in 388 meeting all conditions simultaneously. That's the radar doing exactly what it's designed to do.

Follow-Up — W25 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W26 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 29 tickers the model flagged as priority for W27 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W27.

S2 Signals — Week 26

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

S2 Degraded — 11 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

27 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W27.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 17
• S2 degraded: 11
• S2 pure: 1
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 14

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

CMG · Chipotle Mexican Grill

Why CMG this week: The only pure S2 in a universe of 388 tickers — full AO/AC confirmation at p11%. When the field compresses from 40 to 29 signals and one name earns the highest signal quality, it earns the deep dive.

The Business. Chipotle is the most capital-efficient restaurant chain at scale. 3,600 locations, all company-owned. No franchise risk, direct control over the customer experience. The throughput model — assembly-line burritos, no fryers, limited SKUs — generates industry-leading restaurant-level margins (26–27%). Digital (loyalty, mobile ordering) now represents ~36% of sales. The business doesn't need a turnaround thesis; it needs time.

Why depressed. CMG peaked above $65 in mid-2024 and has corrected to the low $30s — roughly a 50% drawdown. The proximate causes: consumer spending softness in the casual dining category, concerns about portion size perception ("shrinkflation" narrative), and valuation compression as growth-multiple sentiment shifted. None of these are structural. The unit economics remain intact.

The Setup. AO is deeply negative (-3.10), reflecting multi-week selling pressure. AC has just crossed above zero (+0.012) for the first time in that cycle — the classic AO/AC divergence the radar hunts. Pricepercentile at p11%, near 52-week lows. Not at p0% — some bouncing has occurred — but still structurally depressed for a franchise of this quality.

Risk factors. Valuation remains a premium even at these levels — CMG historically trades at 40-60x forward earnings. If macro softens further and restaurant traffic deteriorates, the multiple can compress further even on flat fundamentals. The "peak Chipotle" narrative could become self-fulfilling if new unit economics disappoint. Also: the AO is still deeply negative; this is a first cross, not a confirmed reversal.

The patient investor case. CMG at p11% is not a value trap — it's a premium brand at a cyclically depressed point. The radar doesn't predict price targets; it identifies asymmetric setups. A business with 26% restaurant margins, a clear path to 7,000 units (double current footprint), and a loyalty base of 40M+ members trading at half its 52-week high with a first AC cross is exactly the setup this system was built to surface.

Watch for W27: does the AC hold above zero while AO begins its recovery? That's the confirmation sequence. First cross is the alert; sustained divergence is the signal to act.

Manager Note — W26

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

W26 is a consolidation week. The signal universe contracted sharply — 29 from 40 — which means the market resolved a lot of the compression we flagged in W25. That's structurally healthy: the radar's job is to identify names under pressure, and resolution (even upward, even via signal loss) is the intended outcome. Fourteen names dropped signal last week; seven of them showed real appreciation. The system is working.

What concerns me heading into W27 is the character of what remains. The surviving S1 names aren't gentle-down-trend situations — they're genuinely broken charts. ISRG at p0%, ZG at p0%, CHTR at p2%, SRPT at p4%: these are names where the selling pressure hasn't abated at all. The AC hasn't crossed. We're not in pre-confirmation territory — we're in accumulation-or-deterioration territory, and the market hasn't voted yet.

The macro backdrop adds a layer. Tech (XLK) is notably absent from signals this week — MSFT, ORCL, CRM, NOW all appear in Pre-Radar but haven't triggered. That tells me tech is under pressure but hasn't compressed enough to earn AO/AC confirmation. Healthcare (IBB + XBI + XLV) continues to dominate the active signal list, concentrated in names with binary risk profiles (VKTX, SRPT, INSM, SMMT). The model treats them the same as any other ticker; the analyst shouldn't.

Overall stance: cautious-constructive. The compression is a positive signal about the quality of what's left on the list. CMG as the only pure S2 in 388 tickers is the week's headline — it gets the first position in the watchlist.

Published: Friday, June 26, 2026