Williams AO/AC Signals W27 2026 — 21 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 11 · 2026-07-03

W26 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W26. Prices measured from the Friday close of W26 (2026-06-27) to the Thursday close of W27 (2026-07-03, early close pre-July 4).

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding. Entry Reference = Friday close of W26 (2026-06-27). W27 Close = Thursday 2026-07-03 (early close). Note: Jul 4 holiday shifted close to 1pm ET.

Scorecard summary: 5 escalated · 7 lost signal · 12 holding · 16 of 24 positive · Avg Δ: +2.4% · SPY W26→W27: +2.2% ($728.99→$744.78)

Signal Exit Analysis — W26

🔴 ANALYSIS — Of the 7 names that lost signal, how many exited on real appreciation vs. noise?

Summary: 2 real appreciation (29%) · 5 deterioration or collapse (71%)

The character of W27 exits is notably weaker than W26's. Only 2 of 7 signal losses occurred on genuine price recovery — the majority represent names where the thesis broke down. NRG (-8.5%) is the standout: a name that had been building momentum through June reversed hard. The 5 S2D degradations that escalated out of last week's list (CHTR, LOW, INSM, PCVX, BBIO) are doing what the model expects them to do. The losers are largely from the upper end of the percentile range — which is correct behavior. The structurally depressed core remains intact.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

21 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 5.4% of the universe.

From 29 signals last week to 21 this week — a further 28% contraction. We're now in the third consecutive week of signal compression: 40 → 29 → 21. This isn't bearish noise. It's the radar doing precisely what it should in a market that has been grinding higher. The S&P500 proxy (SPY) closed +2.2% on the week, which mechanically explains why degraded signals resolve faster: rising AC readings pull tickers out of distressed territory.

What matters is the structure of what remains. The 16 active S1s are split between genuinely depressed names (BSX at p1%, SRPT at p5%, STZ at p9%) and names that have been holding steady for multiple weeks (ISRG, CMCSA, ZG — all below p15%). Five S2D tickers signal that AC has genuinely crossed above zero while AO stays negative: the classic "bounce candidate" pattern. No pure S2 this week. The absence of a full confirmation is notable — even as prices rise, the AO is not yet flipping for these names.

The signal universe compression over 3 weeks is likely at or near a local floor. When the market pauses or corrects, names currently at structural lows will re-accumulate AO/AC pressure rapidly.

Follow-Up — W26 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W27 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The tickers the model flagged as priority for W28 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W28 (2026-07-07 through 2026-07-11).
Watch for: BSX AC cross (currently degraded S2D zone) would be the structural event of the quarter. STZ deterioration to watch — if it drops further while S1 holds, that's a re-accumulation setup. SRPT +14.4% in one week while still at p5% — AC not yet confirming.

S2 Signals — Week 27

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week. AO remains negative across all active signal names. The rising price action of W27 has lifted AC readings toward zero (or through zero into S2D territory) but has not flipped AO positive on any ticker. Pure S2 requires both indicators: AO negative → AC crosses above zero → AO then flips. We are at the AC-crossing stage for 5 names but AO still reads the structural pressure.

S2 Degraded — 5 Tickers

These patterns confirmed previously (AC crossed above zero while AO negative) but are now partially extended or the window is narrowing. They represent the highest-probability near-term continuation candidates.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

32 tickers at structural lows (nearLows=true) with no active signal yet. The most depressed names heading into W28 — these are candidates that could generate S1 entries if AO/AC conditions align.

Top names by percentile (≤p20):

Notable: ZTS (p1%) dropped out of S2D signal this week after deterioration — now in pre-radar. If AO resumes its pattern here, ZTS could re-enter signal. FMC and MOS (both XLB, both p0%) represent the materials sector at multi-year lows.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY ($744.78, +2.2% W26→W27)

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 16
• S2 degraded: 5
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (nearLows=true): 60
• Pre-radar candidates (nearLows + no signal, ≤p20): 20

Sector concentration of active signals:

• IBB: 3 (REGN, INSM S2D, BBIO S2D)
• XBI: 3 (SRPT, SMMT, PCVX S2D)
• XLC: 3 (CHTR S2D, ZG, CMCSA)
• XLV: 2 (BSX, ISRG)
• XLY: 3 (STZ, AZO, LOW S2D)
• XLI: 0 (all W26 XLI names lost signal this week)
• XLU: 1 (SR)
• XLB: 1 (BALL)

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

BSX · Boston Scientific Corporation

Why BSX this week: It has appeared in Category A for three consecutive weeks at the bottom of the percentile table — p1%, meaning it's trading at the very floor of its 52-week range. The stock is down 57.9% from its 52-week high of $107.22. That alone earns a deep dive.

The Business

Boston Scientific is one of the largest pure-play medical device companies in the world. With ~59,000 employees and trailing-twelve-month revenue above $20.6 billion, BSX competes in cardiovascular, electrophysiology, endoscopy, urology, and neuromodulation. Their WATCHMAN device — a left atrial appendage closure implant that offers a non-drug alternative to stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients — was arguably the most exciting growth driver in medtech coming into 2026.

Why It's Depressed

BSX peaked at $107.22 and has since collapsed to $45.14. The decline is well-documented and multi-layered:

1. Guidance cuts that kept coming. Q1 2026 earnings beat estimates but the company cut organic sales guidance. Investors had priced BSX for perfection. They got "solid" and sold it.
2. WATCHMAN adoption is slowing. CEO Michael Mahoney acknowledged at the Bernstein Conference in late May that WATCHMAN procedure volumes have declined year-over-year. The market had been pricing aggressive adoption acceleration. The reality proved more modest.
3. Competitive pressure in electrophysiology. Johnson & Johnson has stepped up its presence in the EP mapping and ablation space. This threatens BSX's next leg of growth in one of its highest-margin segments.
4. Multiple derating. BSX had traded at a significant premium to medtech peers on the thesis that WATCHMAN would compound at 25%+ growth. Once that thesis cracked, the premium compressed sharply. The stock went from >40x forward earnings to sub-20x in four months.

As of W27, 27 of 31 Wall Street analysts maintain buy ratings with a consensus price target of ~$78. The gap between where the stock trades ($45) and where analysts think it belongs ($78) is one of the widest in large-cap healthcare.

The Setup

The radar has been tracking BSX in S1 for three weeks. What the model sees:

• AO is deeply negative (−27.43): the indicator has been reading sustained selling pressure for months
• AC is marginally positive (+4.24): the shorter-term momentum is starting to turn, which is what triggers S1
• nearLows=true: confirmed at structural floor relative to history
• pricePercentile=1%: in the bottom 1% of its 52-week range

The S1 trigger means the first condition of the Williams system has been met: AO is negative (structural downtrend) but AC has momentarily crossed above its mid-line. This is not a buy signal. It is a "watch" signal — the model is saying: this name is at maximum depression and the short-term oscillator is trying to turn. If AC can hold above zero and AO begins to flatten, the model will escalate to S2D, then potentially to full S2.

Risk Factors

• The WATCHMAN slowdown may not be temporary. If EP reimbursement dynamics change or J&J takes share faster than expected, the thesis that BSX's current level represents a floor may be wrong.
• The company is heavily levered. A credit environment shift matters.
• Management credibility has been damaged by the series of guidance cuts. Rebuilding investor trust takes time.
• The stock has been falling for six months in a largely rising market (SPY +2.2% this week; BSX in the same session +2.1% — tracking the market exactly, not outperforming). Market beta isn't the problem here; specific fundamental overhang is.

The Patient Investor Case

BSX is not going away. $20 billion in annual revenue, a diversified medtech portfolio, and a WATCHMAN device that — even at slower-than-expected adoption — is still growing in an aging population. The market is pricing permanent impairment. The analyst consensus suggests the market is wrong about permanence.

For the Williams system, the pattern is clear: this is a name that has been under persistent selling pressure, is now sitting at absolute structural lows, and is beginning to show tentative AC recovery. Whether that AC recovery holds and converts to S2D over the next 2-3 weeks will be the test. If BSX appears in S2D next week, it will be the first named deep-dive escalation in this journal's history.

The model won't chase. It will wait for the confirmation. The patient investor framework is what distinguishes a structural buy from a falling knife.

Manager Note — W27

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

Signal count is now 21 — a third consecutive compression week. The model is reacting correctly to a market that has been rallying: names get resolved, the list gets shorter, and what remains is genuinely stubborn.

What's notable this week is the sector character of W27's signal map. XLI has emptied: every single industrial that held a signal through June (IR, PH, MLM, NRG) has lost it. XLI being the first sector to fully evacuate from the signal list is consistent with industrials leading the summer rally — construction, defense, and infrastructure spending are the market's current thesis. That same sector being clean of distressed signals is not worrying; it's expected.

What I'm watching is the healthcare/biotech cluster. XLV and IBB/XBI together hold 8 of the 21 active signals. That concentration has been building for weeks. It reflects a fundamental divergence: while the broad market grinds higher on AI, defense, and energy re-rate stories, the biotech and medtech complex is sitting on a pile of broken 2025 narratives (WATCHMAN, weight loss drug competition, biotech funding headwinds). The Williams system has been quietly accumulating signal density in this space. When the rotation happens — and it will — the signal map is going to be the right map to have.

For W28, the focus is simple: does BSX escalate to S2D? Does SRPT's +14.4% week result in AC confirmation, or was it a single-week bounce? These two questions tell us whether the biotech floor is real or still forming.

Published: Thursday, July 3, 2026