Williams AO/AC Signals W28 2026 — 26 Signals Across 12 Sectors

Edition 12 · July 10, 2026

W27 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W27. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W27 (2026-07-03) to the Thursday close of W28 (2026-07-10). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W27 (2026-07-03). W28 Close = Thursday 2026-07-10. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 6 escalated · 8 lost signal · 3 holding · 4 of 17 positive · Avg Δ: -0.9% · SPY W27→W28: +1.4% ($744.78→$754.95)

Signal Exit Analysis — W27

🔴 ANALYSIS — Of the 8 names that lost signal, how many exited on real appreciation vs. noise?

Summary: 1 real appreciation (13%) · 1 range (13%) · 6 without price support or deterioration (75%)

Notable: LOW (-7.0%) did not lose signal because the setup resolved — it lost it because deterioration deepened. Worth monitoring in W29 as continuation of negative momentum.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

26 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 6.7% of the universe.

From 21 signals last week to 26 this week — the first expansion after three consecutive weeks of compression (40 → 29 → 21 → 26). The reversal is modest but meaningful: it suggests the floor of this compression cycle is in, and new names are entering the signal zone as the market grinds higher without resolving the underlying structural weakness in these tickers.

The composition tells the real story. Seven of the 26 active signals are S2D — the highest S2D count since early June. Six of those are names at structural lows (p10% or below), which is unusual. Normally, S2D tickers at deep lows indicate a bounce-back pattern beginning to confirm. What makes W28 notable is that five of the seven S2D names (BSX, ISRG, ZG, SRPT, AZO) escalated just this week — they were S1 last week. The mass escalation at the low percentile end happens when AC readings lift simultaneously across a depressed cohort. That's a market-wide AC recovery signature, not individual stock thesis resolution.

SPY closed at $754.95 on Thursday — within 1% of its 52-week high of $760.40. The broad market is expensive by any AO/AC measure. The model's universe is telling you the opposite: 59 tickers at nearLows, 26 with active signals, and a structural low cohort that the market hasn't rewarded. That divergence is the backdrop for everything the radar is showing this week.

Follow-Up — W27 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W28 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 26 tickers the model flagged as priority for W29 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W29 (2026-07-14 through 2026-07-18).
Watch for: The five mass-escalated S2D names (BSX, ISRG, ZG, SRPT, AZO) need a second week of holding S2D to confirm the pattern isn't just a one-bar AC recovery. CMCSA is the most structurally interesting S1 — 4 weeks at p10% with a significant corporate event catalyst pending.

S2 Signals — Week 28

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week. The mass S2D escalation this week represents AC crossing above zero while AO remains negative across all seven names. A pure S2 requires AO to also flip positive — which hasn't happened yet. The widespread AC recovery is the first stage; W29 will reveal whether AO follows.

S2 Degraded — 7 Tickers

These 7 tickers confirmed this week (AC crossed above zero while AO negative). Five are fresh escalations from S1 — the single-week mass escalation at structural lows is the defining feature of W28.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

28 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W29.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 19
• S2 degraded: 7
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 28

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

CMCSA · Comcast Corporation

Why CMCSA this week: Four consecutive weeks on the radar at p10% or below — and on June 29, Comcast announced one of the largest corporate separations in media history: the spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate publicly traded company. The stock has barely moved. That is either a massive misread by the market or a rare case where the catalyst is already in the price. The model is signaling the former.

The Business

Comcast operates two structurally distinct businesses that have been bundled under one ticker for 21 years. The first is the cable and broadband infrastructure business — Xfinity, the nation's largest broadband provider by subscribers, serving roughly 32 million customers. High-margin, capital-intensive, and increasingly essential infrastructure. The second is NBCUniversal and Sky: NBC broadcast, MSNBC, Universal Pictures, theme parks, Peacock streaming, and Sky's European pay-TV footprint.

These two businesses have entirely different capital structures, growth profiles, investor bases, and risk premiums. Cable broadband is a steady-cash-flow utility. Media/streaming is a volatile, content-spend-heavy, subscriber-war business. The market has been valuing them together — and discounting both.

Why Depressed

The stock peaked above $50 in 2021. It is currently trading at approximately $23.50 — a 53% decline over five years. Three factors drove this: (1) the persistent streaming subscriber loss narrative that dragged all legacy media names; (2) rising interest rates hitting the leverage profile of the cable infrastructure business; and (3) cord-cutting pressure on cable TV revenue.

At $23.50 and p10%, the market is pricing CMCSA as if both businesses are in structural decline simultaneously. The broadband business is not. Xfinity has pricing power, low churn on broadband (as opposed to cable TV), and expanding into wireless via MVNO. The problem has been that the market couldn't separate the two — until now.

The Setup

The spinoff changes the equation. The tax-free separation, expected to complete in approximately one year, will force the market to price each business on its own merits. What does pure-play cable broadband look like at a peer multiple? Charter Communications (CHTR) — currently also in the radar at p1% — trades as a pure-play cable operator. The infrastructure peer group trades differently than media conglomerates.

The AO/AC signal on CMCSA has been S1 for four weeks. That means: AO is negative (the market has been systematically selling into or avoiding this name), and AC has not yet crossed above zero (no AC recovery confirmation yet). The spinoff announcement on June 29 didn't move it. That's not bearish — it's a sign that the announcement has not yet been processed by the market, or that the event-driven money hasn't rotated in. Either way, the signal remains intact.

Risk Factors

The spinoff is not guaranteed. Execution risk on a deal of this complexity is real. Tax-free treatment can be challenged. NBCUniversal spinoff creates a new company that the market may initially price poorly, weighing on the overall transaction. CMCSA retains up to 19.9% of NBCUniversal post-separation — that's a residual drag until divested. Cord-cutting continues to accelerate on the legacy cable TV product, even as broadband holds.

The Patient Investor Case

This is a name where the catalyst is large, the timeline is defined (roughly 12 months), and the current price implies the market has not yet valued the sum of the parts. Four weeks at structural lows with a persistent S1 while a transformational corporate event is announced and digested — that's exactly the setup this model is designed to identify.

The AO/AC signal will confirm or deny the setup: if AC crosses above zero (S2D) while AO remains negative, the patient accumulation thesis is beginning. If AO stays suppressed through the spinoff process, the market is disagreeing with the thesis. The model is watching. So should you.

Manager Note — W28

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

SPY closed Thursday at $754.95 — within striking distance of its 52-week high of $760.40. Q2 earnings season is beginning, with financial sector reports leading the week and expectations set at +23% growth. The market is positioned for good news, which means the downside surprise risk is asymmetric.

The radar's signal expansion this week — from 21 to 26, led by a mass S2D escalation in names trading at structural lows — is happening against a backdrop where the index itself is near highs. This divergence is the central tension. The broad market is expensive; the names the model is tracking are historically cheap. That's not a contradiction — it's sector rotation math. Capital flowing into the laggards would require it to leave the leaders. At 52-week highs with earnings about to print, the leaders have the floor first.

The CMCSA/media spinoff theme is one to watch. Comcast's announcement sits alongside a wave of corporate restructurings — conglomerates simplifying, media separating from infrastructure, legacy businesses demerging. If the spinoff cycle accelerates, it could generate a series of forced revaluations in names that the market currently prices as blended businesses. The AO/AC model doesn't predict corporate events — but four consecutive weeks of S1 at p10%, straddling a major restructuring announcement, is a signal worth naming explicitly.

Position: no change. Paper mode. Watchlist active on BSX, ISRG, CMCSA for first S2D-to-S2 transitions.

Published: Thursday, July 10, 2026