Williams AO/AC Signals W29 2026 — 33 Signals Across 10 Sectors

Edition 13 · 2026-07-17

W28 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W28. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W28 (2026-07-10) to the Thursday close of W29 (2026-07-17). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W28 (2026-07-10). W29 Close = Thursday 2026-07-17. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 3 escalated · 8 lost signal · 14 holding · 14 of 25 positive · Avg Δ: +0.6% · SPY W28→W29: -0.4%

Análisis de Salidas — Señales W28

🔴 ANÁLISIS — ¿Los 8 nombres que perdieron señal salieron por apreciación real o por ruido?

Resumen: 1 apreciación real (13%) · 2 rango (25%) · 5 sin soporte de precio o deterioro (63%)

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

33 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 8.5% of the universe.

From 26 signals last week to 33 this week — the expansion continues, but the composition has completely changed character. W28 was a mass-escalation story: five names jumped from S1 to S2D simultaneously, the kind of AC-recovery wave that looks like early confirmation of a bottom. W29 is the aftermath: six of those seven S2D names dropped off the radar entirely. BSX, ISRG, ZG, SRPT, AZO, REGN — all lost signal in a single week. The mass escalation was a one-bar event, not the beginning of a trend.

That matters because the signal count didn't contract — it expanded to 33. The volume is there, but it's being driven by new S1 entrants, not by S2D confirmation. Of the four current S2D names, three are fresh escalations this week (NOW, CMCSA, SMMT) and one is META — a very different animal from the deeply distressed S2D cohort of W28. META at p60% is a pullback inside an uptrend. NOW, CMCSA, and SMMT at near-lows are genuine structural setups.

The most telling data point: SPY fell -0.4% this week ($754.95 → $751.83), but the radar's S1 cohort averaged +0.6% across W28 candidates. Fourteen of 25 names were positive. The depressed cohort is starting to move while the broad market consolidates — which is exactly what you want to see if the thesis is mean reversion from structural lows. The problem is the S2D names didn't hold. One week of AC recovery isn't confirmation. W30 is the real test: do CMCSA, NOW, SMMT, and META hold S2D for a second consecutive week?

The sector rotation is the other story. W28 was dominated by healthcare and biotech (BSX, ISRG, SRPT, REGN). W29 is dominated by energy (7 signals: BKR, COP, HAL, SLB, DVN, RRC, AR), materials (6: DOW, LYB, FMC, OLN, ALB, NEM), and tech (5: NOW, MSFT, CRM, SNPS, PLTR). Energy in particular is entirely S1 and none of these names are at structural lows — COP at p57%, HAL at p70%, BKR at p68%. That's a different kind of signal: sector weakness in names that haven't been beaten down to historical floor levels. Worth watching but not the same risk/reward as the deep-value setups in materials and tech.

Follow-Up — W28 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W29 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 33 tickers the model flagged as priority for W30 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W30.

S2 Signals — Week 29

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 4 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

32 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W30.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 29
• S2 degraded: 4
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 15

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

CMCSA — The Patient Trade Finally Escalates

CMCSA has been in the radar for five consecutive weeks. It entered at S1 in W25 ($24.29), held through W26, W27, W28, and escalated to S2D this week at $23.97. Price is down from entry, AO is deeply negative (-3.88), but the AC just crossed above zero — the first sign of accumulation after five weeks of grinding lower.

The structural case hasn't changed: Comcast trades at 7.3x forward earnings for a business generating $17B in annual free cash flow. The SpinCo announcement (planned separation of NBCUniversal cable networks) removes the content drag from the valuation. The market has priced this as a terminal decline story; the model is reading it as a compression extreme with early accumulation.

What makes this week different from the previous four: the AC crossing above zero while price was actually up +1.7% this week — that's not a false technical cross. Price moved and accumulation confirmed simultaneously. That's the cleanest S2D entry signal the radar produces.

The risk: the SpinCo execution is a multi-year process and the broadband subscriber trend remains under pressure from fixed wireless competition (T-Mobile, Verizon). This is not a quick recovery trade. The model's S2D signal says accumulation is starting; it doesn't say the fundamental thesis resolves next quarter.

At p7% (price in the bottom 7% of its 52-week range), the setup is asymmetric. Second consecutive S2D week would be the confirmation trigger.

Manager Note — W29

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The mass S2D escalation of W28 — five names confirming in a single week — read at the time as a potential inflection. It wasn't. Six of those seven names dropped signal in one week. That's not a reversal; that's a one-bar AC recovery in a market that's still in distribution mode for the depressed cohort.

The broader market read is cautious. SPY is at $751.83, down modestly from last week's $754.95, and still within 1% of 52-week highs. That divergence between a historically high broad market and a radar showing 33 active signals (8.5% of the universe) with 15 names at structural lows is the persistent tension of this year. The market is expensive; the distressed names aren't resolving; the AC recoveries are coming and going in single-week bursts.

What changed this week: the energy sector showed up in force. Seven energy names (BKR, COP, HAL, SLB, DVN, RRC, AR) entered S1 — none of them at structural lows, all of them in the middle of their 52-week ranges. That's a different signal than the deep-value setups. Energy S1 at mid-range percentiles reads as sector rotation weakness, not structural distress. I'm treating those differently — lower conviction, more macro-dependent.

The names I'm watching into W30: CMCSA (S2D, second-week confirmation test), NOW (S2D, first week), and the materials cluster (DOW, LYB, FMC, OLN — all at or near structural lows, all S1). If that materials cluster starts escalating to S2D while energy consolidates, that tells you something real about where money is moving within the distressed universe.

No positions open. The W28 S2D mass-escalation pattern was tempting as a catalyst; the one-week reversal was the right reason to stay in paper mode. Confirmation takes time.

Published: 2026-07-17