Williams AO/AC Signals W32 2026 — 23 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 16 · August 7, 2026

W31 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W31. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W31 (2026-07-31) to the Thursday close of W32 (2026-08-07). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W31 (2026-07-31). W32 Close = Thursday 2026-08-07. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 3 escalated · 11 lost signal · 16 holding · 18 of 30 positive · Avg Δ: +0.9% · SPY W31→W32: —

Entry Reference = Friday close of W31 (last published price before naming the candidate).
Result key: ✓ positive · ✗ negative · — still watching (S2 not yet confirmed).

Exit Analysis — W31 Signals

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Did the 11 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

The most striking pattern this week: seven of eleven exits were technically AC-positive flips — the signal cleared because the oscillator resolved, not because price collapsed. That's a structurally healthier exit pattern than it looks on the surface.

Summary: 2 real appreciation (18%) · 4 range (36%) · 4 false technical / deterioration (36%) · 1 breakdown (9%)

The S2D cluster that built through W29–W31 (PLTR, TSN, CME, RRC, COP, FOXA) unwound almost simultaneously. Seven names dropped signal in a single week. That kind of coordinated exit is not random noise — it reflects a broad market-level AC reset, not individual stock resolution. The model correctly flagged the setups; the market's response was mostly technical normalization rather than durable appreciation. SNAP (+7.5%) and MSFT (+4.9%) are the clear exceptions: genuine price confirmation. FMC at -3.3% is the only true breakdown.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

23 active signals across 388 tickers analyzed — 5.9% of the universe.

From 31 signals last week to 23 this week — a 26% contraction in signal count, and the sharpest single-week drop since W28. The headline tells a story the individual scorecard rows confirm: W31's S2D cluster did not convert into entries. It dissolved. Seven S2D names cleared simultaneously as the AC oscillator reset across a wide cross-section of the market, taking the overall signal layer with it.

What remains is leaner and more concentrated. XLB materials now accounts for 8 of 23 active signals (35%) — the highest sector concentration in months. The three surviving S2Ds (KR, LYB, DVN) are fresh escalations, not carryovers, which means this week's list is structurally younger and less exhausted than last week's. That matters: new S2D signals carry more information than ones in their third or fourth week of confirmation.

The 5.9% signal rate is below the trailing average. Low signal environments historically precede either a further compression into consolidation, or a sharp expansion in the following 1–2 weeks as the market resolves its indirection. Both paths are live. This week, the model is saying: fewer names, cleaner setups.

Follow-Up — W31 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W32 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 23 tickers the model flagged as priority for W33 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W33 (Aug 10–15, 2026).
S2D watch: KR and LYB are fresh escalations — first confirmation week. DVN is the energy outlier: escalating at p69%, which is elevated. Watch for second-week confirmation or AC reversal as the key binary.

S2 Signals — Week 32

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 3 Tickers

These three patterns confirmed this week for the first time. "Degraded" means the confirmation window has opened but AO is already recovering, reducing the signal's remaining duration.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

36 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W33.

The consumer staples (XLP) cohort in Pre-Radar is notable: K, MCD, STZ, CPB, GIS, CAG, TAP, CLX — eight names at structural lows with no active signal. This is the largest concentration of XLP pre-signal names since W22. If AO begins to turn in one or two of these over W33, the staples complex could generate a signal cluster analogous to the XLB wave we're currently tracking.

The Universe

388 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 20
• S2 degraded: 3
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 11 (active signal) · 36 (pre-radar, no signal)

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

OLN · Olin Corporation (XLB — Chemicals)

Why OLN this week: It sits at p1% of its 52-week range — the single most price-compressed name on the active signal list. It has now held S1 for multiple consecutive weeks without escalating to S2D, which in the model's grammar means: AO remains negative, the structure is building, but AC hasn't committed. That's not failure. That's patience becoming structural.

The Business

Olin Corporation is a three-segment specialty chemicals company: Winchester (ammunition), Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls, and Epoxy. The chemicals segments — chlorine, caustic soda, epoxy resins — are classic industrial commodities: highly cyclical, margin-sensitive, and deeply tied to industrial demand and energy input costs. Winchester, the ammunition brand, provides a ballistic hedge of sorts — it tends to outperform in certain political climates and carries different demand drivers than the chemical segments.

The combination gives OLN an unusual risk profile: it's not purely a commodity chemical play, but it can't escape the cyclicality of chlorine pricing either. When chlor-alkali spreads compress (as they have been), the stock follows.

Why Depressed

OLN has been in a prolonged downcycle driven by chlor-alkali oversupply, particularly out of China. Chlorine and caustic soda capacity additions globally have weighed on pricing since late 2023. Simultaneously, epoxy demand from wind energy and electronics has softened. The ammunition segment has been the only relative bright spot, but it can't carry the whole company.

At $18.62, OLN is trading near levels last seen in 2020 and 2017. The 52-week range puts it at p1% — this is a stock at a structural floor, not a recent correction. AO at -3.33 is still negative, reflecting ongoing price momentum against the name. But the degraded AC reading (+ac color: green) tells us something: the short-term oscillator is beginning to look for a direction.

The Setup

The AO/AC structure in OLN is the textbook S1 pattern: Awesome Oscillator deeply in the red, signaling persistent bearish momentum in the medium term; AC just turned — or is turning — positive, with a green color flag. This divergence between the two oscillators is precisely where the model looks for potential inflection. It doesn't guarantee reversal. It identifies the moment when the two timeframes begin to disagree — and disagreement at structural lows is where the risk/reward becomes asymmetric.

nearLows is flagged. The ranging filter is not triggered (ranging: false), which means price hasn't stagnated into a dead sideways chop — there's still directional movement, even if it's compressed. That matters: ranging names at lows often stay there. Non-ranging names at lows are either breaking further or coiling.

The signal has now survived multiple weeks without degradation, which itself is a data point. S1 names that hold their signal while price stabilizes tend to be better setups than names that immediately escalate to S2D — because the building time means the AO is genuinely working through the compression rather than getting a technical flicker.

Risk Factors

Chlor-alkali pricing could stay compressed longer than the model's time horizon. If Chinese capacity remains online and demand from downstream construction and electronics stays soft, OLN's fundamental setup doesn't improve regardless of the technical signal. The model doesn't read earnings calls or pricing commentary — it reads price structure. Those can diverge.

Additionally, OLN carries meaningful balance sheet leverage from past acquisitions. In a downcycle environment, that limits the company's strategic flexibility and could weigh on the stock independently of the chemicals cycle.

The ammunition segment, while helpful, is not large enough to rerate the entire equity. Investors tend to value OLN on the chemicals multiple, and that multiple is currently not generous.

The Patient Investor Case

Chlor-alkali cycles are historically mean-reverting. The oversupply thesis is well understood and already reflected in a stock at p1% of its range. If Chinese capacity starts to rationalize — which has happened before under margin pressure — or if downstream demand in construction and EVs begins to recover, OLN is one of the names with the most operating leverage to that inflection.

At current prices, the market is pricing a prolonged downcycle with no recovery. The model is not forecasting recovery. It is flagging that the price structure at this level — with AO showing persistent negativity and AC beginning to diverge positively — is consistent with historical setups that preceded mean reversions in similar cyclical names.

This is not a catalyst-driven trade. It's a structural patience trade. The stop is simple: if AC turns red again and AO doesn't improve, the signal degrades and OLN exits the list. Until that happens, p1% with nearLows flagged and a green AC color is the model's definition of a name worth watching.

Manager Note — W32

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The W31 S2D cluster didn't convert — it unwound. Seven names dropped signal in a single week, most of them via AC flipping positive without meaningful price follow-through. That's an unusual pattern, and it warrants reflection: when a broad S2D cluster resolves simultaneously, it typically means one of two things. Either the market had a genuine short-term relief event that normalized the oscillator structure across names (a "reset" week), or the setups were premature and the patience required is longer than one confirmation cycle.

My read this week is the former. The macro backdrop — modest risk-on tone, energy volatility contained, and tech maintaining resilience (MSFT, ORCL both positive this week) — gave the AC oscillator enough fuel to flip across a wide set of names simultaneously. None of the exits felt like genuine fundamental resolution. They felt like technical normalization in a market that hasn't decided its direction.

What I'm watching heading into W33: the XLB materials bloc is the core story. Eight signals active, two fresh S2Ds (KR, LYB), and a pre-radar pipeline that includes FMC at p0%, MOS at p4%, and STZ at p3%. If the XLB names continue to hold their signals while price stabilizes at these levels, we may be looking at a classic sector-wide bottoming setup over the next 3–5 weeks — the kind that preceded the XLE energy entry wave in W29. I'm not positioned yet. But I'm watching this bloc with more attention than anything else in the current list.

OLN at p1% is the symbol of this week's posture: extreme compression, signal intact, no false resolution. Patient.

Published: Friday, August 7, 2026