Williams AO/AC Signals W35 2026 — 23 Signals Across 9 Sectors

Edition 19 · August 28, 2026

W34 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W34. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W34 (2026-08-21) to the Thursday close of W35 (2026-08-28). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W34 (2026-08-21). W35 Close = Thursday 2026-08-28. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 6 escalated · 9 lost signal · 12 holding · 7 of 27 positive · Avg Δ: -1.2% · SPY W34→W35: flat to slight positive (~$770 range)

Entry Reference = Thursday close of W34 (last published price before naming the candidate).
Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position.

Exit Analysis — W34 Signals

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Did the 9 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

Nine exits this week — a mixed but mostly bearish read. ARCT is the lone genuine appreciation story: +6.6% with AC resetting on real price strength. Seven others were false technical resets — the oscillator flipped while price actually declined. NCLH was the lone breakdown: AC turned red confirming deterioration, not resolution. CRSP deserves a watchlist flag — it lost signal not because it resolved, but because deterioration deepened. The pattern across W34 exits echoes W33: mechanical resets with limited price follow-through.

Summary: 1 real appreciation (11%) · 2 range (22%) · 6 without price support or deterioration (67%)

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

23 active signals across 387 tickers analyzed — 5.9% of the universe.

Signal count contracts from 27 (W34) to 23 — a net reduction driven by nine exits versus six new escalations. The market is not broadening; it is thinning selectively. The six active S2D signals (SNPS, SBAC, RXRX, SRPT, IONS, ALLO) represent the model's highest-conviction compression setups heading into September. Critically, SNPS demonstrated this week that a compressed oscillator setup at structural lows can resolve violently: it carried a deeply negative AO (-46) with AC just crossing positive, and then delivered a 16.8% single-session surge on earnings. The radar does not predict catalysts — it identifies structural conditions that make outperformance possible when the catalyst arrives. That is the posture worth holding for the remaining five S2D names.

Follow-Up — W34 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W35 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 23 tickers the model flagged as priority for W36 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W36 (August 31 – September 5).
Key watch for W36: CCI (S1, p3%), FMC (S1, p2%), and the S2D cluster in biotech — RXRX at p4%, SRPT at p5%. SNPS is a special case: the signal triggered before earnings; with the stock now above $448, the structural setup has largely resolved. Watch whether the percentile re-anchors at a higher base or the signal exits cleanly in W36.

S2 Signals — Week 35

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 6 Tickers

These patterns confirmed S2D during W35: AC has crossed positive while AO remains negative, creating the degraded confirmation window. The clock is running — these need price follow-through in W36 or the signal expires.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

25 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W36.

Five tickers are pinned at the very floor of their 52-week range with no oscillator signal: K, OLN, NKE, TTD, PARA. These are the names most likely to either generate S1 next week or extend their deterioration. Watch closely heading into September.

The Universe

387 tickers · 13 sectors
Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI
Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 17
• S2 degraded: 6
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p15): 12 with signal · ~25 approaching without signal

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

SNPS · Synopsys, Inc.

Why SNPS this week: The radar flagged Synopsys at S2D with price percentile p9% — deep inside the bottom decile of its 52-week range — while AO registered -46.2, one of the most negative readings in the entire universe. Two days after the signal, Synopsys reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat consensus by 12.7% and raised full-year guidance. The stock surged 16.8% in a single session. This is the model working exactly as designed.

The Business

Synopsys is the dominant player in chip design automation — the software and reusable circuit building blocks that semiconductor companies rely on to build every modern processor and custom silicon device. Without these tools, nothing in the semiconductor supply chain gets designed. SNPS competes primarily with CDNS in a duopoly that controls roughly two-thirds of the global market. Revenue for fiscal 2026 is tracking above $7 billion following the 2024 acquisition of Ansys, which added simulation and multiphysics analysis capabilities to the portfolio.

Why it was depressed

From its all-time high near $645 in July 2025, SNPS had declined roughly 37% by the time the radar flagged it at ~$394. The compression came from multiple overlapping pressures: regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Ansys integration, sector rotation away from software toward direct semiconductor exposure (NVDA, AMD), and investor concern about China export control headwinds limiting SNPS revenue in its domestic China business. By mid-August 2026, SNPS was sitting at p9% — cheaper than 91% of the observations in the trailing 52 weeks. The oscillator read: AO deeply negative at -46.2, AC just crossing positive from below. Classic S2D setup.

The Setup

The Williams oscillator system does not predict earnings beats. What it identifies is a specific structural condition: selling momentum has exhausted itself (AO deeply negative, indicating sustained weekly distribution), while short-term momentum begins to shift (AC crosses positive, indicating buyers re-entering). That combination — maximum oscillator compression at price lows — marks the asymmetric zone where even modest positive surprise can produce outsized moves. SNPS was a textbook case. The entry reference was $397.87 (Thursday close of W34). The signal escalated to S2D. Two sessions later, the catalyst arrived.

What happened

On August 26, Synopsys reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings per share of $3.91 versus consensus of $3.47 — a 12.7% beat. Revenue exceeded guidance. Full-year guidance was raised across all key metrics. Management cited artificial-intelligence-driven chip complexity, hyperscaler custom silicon design starts, and continued Ansys integration synergies as the primary demand drivers. The stock surged from approximately $397 to $465 intraday before settling near $448 — a net single-session gain of approximately 16.8%. By end of week the stock was trading around $448, giving back some of the immediate reaction but remaining firmly above the signal reference.

Risk factors

SNPS at $448+ is no longer a structurally depressed name by the model's definition. The price percentile will reset significantly upward in next week's radar. The forward risks are: first, Ansys integration execution — a $35 billion deal that introduced meaningful leverage; second, China revenue headwinds from export restrictions, which management has managed but not resolved; third, the chip design cycle — if the current wave of custom silicon development plateaus, SNPS could revisit lower ranges. At current prices, the structural setup has resolved. This is a post-signal observation, not a new entry recommendation.

The patient investor case

The lesson from SNPS this week is not "buy the next S2D name and wait for an earnings catalyst." The lesson is that the model identifies structural compression — places where price has been ground down far enough that risk-reward skews meaningfully positive. SNPS was generating an S2D reading with AO near -46, one of the most extreme oscillator readings in a 387-ticker universe. The patient investor who understood what that meant — not a prediction, but a measurable condition — was positioned to benefit from a catalyst the model never saw coming. That is the edge.

Manager Note — W35

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The headline of W35 is Synopsys — and it deserves to be. A 16.8% single-session surge in a name the radar had flagged at S2D p9% is exactly the kind of outcome this system is built to position for. But let us be clear about what this is and what it is not: the model did not predict the earnings beat. It identified a structural condition — maximum oscillator compression at 52-week lows — that made outperformance possible if any positive catalyst emerged. Catalysts are unknowable. Structural setups are measurable. That distinction matters for how we use this system.

Looking at the broader picture, signal count declining from 27 to 23 reflects some genuine resolution (positive in the case of SNPS and ARCT; mechanical in most others). What concerns me is the pattern of exits: six of the nine W34 exits were false technical resets, where the oscillator flipped while price continued lower. The market is not broadly healing — it is cycling through mechanical oscillator resets without genuine price discovery. The biotech cluster remains the most active signal zone, with S2D readings across RXRX (p4%), SRPT (p5%), ALLO (p49%), and IONS (p59%). The pre-radar list is dense with consumer staples and discretionary names — K, NKE, MCD, LOW, OLN — that sit at structural floors without yet triggering. September seasonality, Federal Reserve posture, and the end of summer liquidity thinning will determine whether those setups resolve upward or extend lower. The posture remains: watch, measure, wait. Do not force entries before the signal.

Published: Friday, August 28, 2026