Williams AO/AC Signals W36 2026 — 22 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 20 · 2026-09-04

W35 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W35. Prices measured from the Thursday close of W35 (2026-08-28) to the Thursday close of W36 (2026-09-04). Alpha Vantage weekly bars — last bar of the trading week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = Thursday close of W35 (2026-08-28). W36 Close = Thursday 2026-09-04. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 4 escalated · 9 lost signal · 10 holding · 10 of 23 positive · Avg Δ: +0.6% · SPY: —

Exit Analysis — W35 Signals

🔴 ANALYSIS — Did the 9 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or on noise?

Summary: 0 real appreciation (0%) · 5 range (56%) · 4 without price support or deterioration (44%)

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

22 active signals across 387 tickers analyzed — 5.7% of the universe.

[Editorial commentary to be added by analyst]

Follow-Up — W35 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W36 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 22 tickers the model flagged as priority for W37 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W37.

S2 Signals — Week 36

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 5 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

34 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W37.

The Universe

387 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 17
• S2 degraded: 5
• S2 pure: 0
• Tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 10

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

TSLA · Tesla, Inc.

Why TSLA this week: Tesla escalated from S1 to S2D this week with a price percentile of p57% — not at the floor of its range, but with oscillator confirmation that makes it the most structurally interesting escalation of W36. TSLA has been building momentum across the signal list for several weeks; the AC crossing positive from an AO that had been grinding down marks the technical inflection the model requires before calling escalation.

The Business

Tesla needs no introduction as a business, but the market's relationship with it requires framing. TSLA in 2026 is no longer a pure electric vehicle growth story — it is a multi-segment company where energy storage, full self-driving software licensing, and the Robotaxi program compete for narrative with the core vehicle business. Revenue from energy and services has been growing faster than vehicle sales for five consecutive quarters. The bull case rests on full self-driving monetization and Robotaxi deployment. The bear case rests on margin compression in the core vehicle business as global competition intensifies.

Why it was depressed

From its 2025 highs, TSLA had experienced meaningful compression driven by three overlapping pressures: Elon Musk's political visibility creating brand headwinds in Europe and coastal US markets, pricing wars in China reducing margin visibility, and investor rotation away from high-multiple growth names in an environment of rising yield concerns. By the time the radar flagged it at S1, the oscillator was reading sustained distribution — sellers in control, buyers absent. The escalation to S2D marks the first sign that the distribution phase may be exhausting itself.

The Setup

At p57%, TSLA is not a structurally cheap name the way SMMT at p3% or OLN at p1% are cheap. The S2D here is an oscillator confirmation setup, not a structural-floor setup. AO has been recovering from negative territory, and AC crossing positive from below completes the minimum signal criteria. This is the kind of escalation to watch rather than act on immediately — the structural condition is developing, not extreme. The question for W37 is whether the oscillator improvement translates into sustained price momentum or fades back into distribution.

Risk factors

TSLA carries a different risk profile than most S2D names in this universe. At p57%, any macro-driven broad selloff resets the oscillator without price discovery. The political dimension of the brand is not measurable by the model and remains a wildcard. full self-driving regulatory approval timelines in key markets are binary events that can move the stock ±15% in a single session — both directions. Position sizing discipline is especially important here.

The patient investor case

The radar flagged TSLA's oscillator exhaustion before the narrative cleared. That is the edge. If the macro environment stabilizes heading into Q4, and if full self-driving or Robotaxi news provides a catalyst, TSLA has meaningful runway from p57%. If the macro deteriorates, the signal will reset and the model will say so. The posture: monitor, not commit.

Manager Note — W36

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The defining characteristic of W36 is the scale of AC resets — nine names lost their signal, nearly all through the same mechanical pattern: the oscillator flipped positive while price barely moved or moved the wrong way. FMC, RXRX, SRPT, CCI, SBAC, SNPS, IONS, ALLO, and HAL all exited through AC crossings that lacked price confirmation. The signal count dropped from 23 to 22, but the churn underneath that stable headline number tells a more turbulent story.

What we are watching is an oscillator universe that is cycling through resets without resolution. The market is not broadly recovering — it is generating short-term momentum flips that look like bottoms but do not produce sustained buying. The four escalations this week — IBM, NTLA, TSLA, BEAM — are genuine signal improvements, each with AO recovering from negative territory and AC confirming. But TSLA at p57% and BEAM at p72% are higher-percentile names than we typically see escalating; the classic floor setups are IBM at p28% and NTLA at p32%.

The pre-radar list deserves close attention this week. Thirty-four names sit at structural lows without yet triggering — a number that has been growing for several weeks. Consumer staples dominate: K, NKE, MCD, LOW, STZ, TAP, CAG, CLX all at or near their 52-week lows. This cluster suggests the defensive trade has unwound further than the headline indices imply. Real estate also stands out: CCI at p3%, VICI at p0%, ARE at p12% — the rate-sensitive real estate sector is pricing in continued pressure. BSX at p7% in the pre-radar is a name this system has flagged before; patience remains the discipline.

The posture for W37: the setup list is rich but unconfirmed. Thirty-four names approaching the signal zone is an opportunity if macro tailwinds arrive; it is a trap if the environment continues to generate mechanical resets without genuine price discovery. Watch the escalations that came through this week — IBM and NTLA in particular — for follow-through. If they hold, the signal is real. If they fade back to S1 by next Friday, the market is still in distribution.

Published: Friday, September 5, 2026

Published: 2026-09-04