Williams AO/AC Signals W37 2026 — 22 Signals Across 9 Sectors

Edition 21 · 2026-09-11

W36 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W36. Prices measured from the last weekly close of W36 (2026-09-04) to the last weekly close of W37 (2026-09-11). Polygon weekly bars — last trading day of the week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = last weekly close of W36 (2026-09-04). W37 Close = last weekly close 2026-09-11. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 4 escalated · 6 lost signal · 11 holding · 9 of 21 positive · Avg Δ: -1.1% · SPY W36→W37: -0.8% · 1 not measured (no W37 bar)

Exit Analysis — W36 Signals

🔴 ANALYSIS — Did the 6 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

Summary: 0 real appreciation (0%) · 2 range (33%) · 4 no price support / deterioration (67%)

Notable: BEAM (-19.1%) did not lose its signal because the setup resolved — it lost it because the deterioration deepened. Worth monitoring in W37 as a continuation of negative momentum.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

22 active signals across 366 tickers analyzed — 6.0% of the universe.

The 22 breaks down into 18 S1 setups and 4 S2 degraded — with zero pure S2 confirmations this week. That mix matters more than the headline count: every active name is either at the early-signal stage or already watching its AC roll back toward positive, and none has printed a clean full confirmation. Of the 22, nine sit at structural lows (≤p30), so the concentration of interest remains at the depressed end of the 52-week range rather than in names that have already bounced. A universe running 6.0% signal density with no pure S2 is a market where setups are forming but conviction has not yet arrived.

Follow-Up — W36 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W37 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 22 tickers the model flagged as priority for W38 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to 52-week range).

Decision week: W38.

S2 Signals — Week 37

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 4 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

45 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W38.

The Universe

366 tickers · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 18
• S2 degraded: 4
• S2 pure: 0
• Signal tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 9

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

QCOM (XLK, p44%). Qualcomm is the cleanest escalation on the board this week. It entered W36 as an S1 at a $168.74 reference and closed W37 at $181.97 — a +7.8% move that carried it to an S2 degraded read, with the AC crossing while the AO was already recovering. That is the textbook path we want an S1 to take: the setup fires at a depressed level, price responds, and the confirmation stack begins to build rather than the signal simply evaporating.

Two things temper the enthusiasm. First, at p44% QCOM is no longer trading at structural lows — the +7.8% already lifted it toward the middle of its range, so the asymmetric entry that defines the best radar names has partly closed. Second, S2 degraded is not S2 pure: the AC has crossed but the AO is still in recovery, meaning the confirmation is in progress, not complete. With no pure S2 anywhere in the universe this week, QCOM is as close to a confirming setup as W37 offers — but it is a name to watch into the W38 decision, not a finished thesis.

Manager Note — W37

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The W36 scorecard reads flat with a defensive undertone. Of 21 measured candidates, 9 closed positive and the basket averaged −1.1% against SPY's −0.8% — the radar names lagged the index by a modest 0.3 points over the week. Four candidates escalated (RBLX, ALNY, META, QCOM), six lost their signal, and eleven are still holding — five of them (TTD, OLN, CARR, MLM, CC) at structural lows. Nothing here breaks decisively in either direction; the book is treading water while it waits for a catalyst.

The exit analysis is the part that deserves attention. None of the six names that lost their signal did so on real appreciation — zero of six. Two (IBM, TSLA) moved without conviction inside their range, one (SMMT) was a false technical tick with price slipping, and three (DHI, NTLA, BEAM) broke down on deterioration rather than resolution. BEAM is the cautionary case: it lost its signal not because the setup worked but because it fell −19.1%, and it stays on the watch list as a continuation of negative momentum, not a graduate. When four of six exits (two-thirds) leave with no price support behind them, the discipline of holding S1 names at lows is doing real work — it kept capital out of the names that were failing.

Looking into W38, the pre-radar bench is deep: 45 tickers sit at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet, led by XLP (11 names) and XLY (7), with XLC, XLV and XLRE behind — the defensive, consumer and rate-sensitive corners. With the portfolio flat (no open positions, paper mode) and no pure S2 confirmations anywhere in the universe, there is no reason to force a position this week. The setup count is building; the confirmations are not here yet. Patience over the W38 decision window.

Published: 2026-09-11