Williams AO/AC Signals W40 2026 — 34 Signals Across 8 Sectors

Edition 24 · 2026-10-02

W39 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W39. Prices measured from the last weekly close of W39 (2026-09-25) to the last weekly close of W40 (2026-10-02). Polygon weekly bars — last trading day of the week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = last weekly close of W39 (2026-09-25). W40 Close = last weekly close 2026-10-02. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 0 escalated · 5 lost signal · 19 holding · 14 of 24 positive · Avg Δ: +1.3% · SPY W39→W40: -0.2%

Exit Analysis — W39 Signals

🔴 ANALYSIS — Did the 5 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

Summary: 0 real appreciation (0%) · 1 range (20%) · 4 no price support / deterioration (80%)

Notable: NKE (-5.3%) did not lose its signal because the setup resolved — it lost it because the deterioration deepened. Worth monitoring in W41 as a continuation of negative momentum.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

34 active signals across 366 tickers analyzed — 9.3% of the universe.

The headline count rose for a second straight week: 34 active signals, up from 24 in W39 and 13 in W38. Per the published edition titles, 34 is the widest field since W25 (40) and matches W23 (34). The composition matters more than the count, though. Every one of the 34 is an S1 setup, with zero S2 degraded and zero pure S2 confirmations for the second week running. The field is wide but nothing has been confirmed.

It is also a different field from last week. Only 19 of the 34 carried over from W39; 15 are new, including LMT, BA, RTX, GE, VRT, CCL, RCL, SO, SHW and HRL. The mix has shifted toward the middle and upper end of the two-year (104-week) range: 18 of the 34 sit above p50, 6 sit between p31 and p50, and 10 sit at structural lows (≤p30). That structural-low count is the same as W39, but the names are not: HRL, RPM, SO and SHW replaced NKE, MLM, UPS and CC. By sector, industrials lead with 10 signals and technology follows with 7. In other words, the early-signal stage is re-populating with names that are already recovering, not only with names at the floor.

Follow-Up — W39 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W40 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 34 tickers the model flagged as priority for W41 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to the 104-week (2-year) range).

Decision week: W41.

S2 Signals — Week 40

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 0 Tickers

None this week.

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

60 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W41.

The Universe

366 tickers in universe · 366 scanned · 13 sectors Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 34
• S2 degraded: 0
• S2 pure: 0
• Signal tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 10

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

NKE — Nike (XLY): the signal we flagged last week finished the job.

The W39 exit analysis was clear about NKE: it was an S1 sitting almost at the floor of its range, and the AC was only barely negative at −0.0993 and still printing green. This week that changed. NKE fell 5.3% (from $35.75 to $33.87), the AC deepened to −0.2724 and turned red, and the S1 flag was lost. The AO went the same way, from −8.70 to −8.96. The name now reads p0%, the absolute floor of its two-year (104-week) range, and it appears in the pre-radar set rather than on the candidate list.

This is not a signal that resolved. The S1 requires the AC to be rising, and a red AC means the opposite: the downside momentum that was shallow last week got a little more pronounced. Price confirmed it. Four of this week's five exits (NKE, MLM, UPS and CC) left on AC turning negative, which is the same deterioration pattern, with NKE and CC the largest decliners at −5.3% and −5.2%.

What would change the read: a new S1 needs the AC to turn up again from below zero while the AO stays negative. Until that happens, NKE is a name at the floor with falling momentum, which is precisely the profile the pre-radar list is meant to hold. It joins a consumer discretionary group that now has 10 names at ≤p15 with no signal. We are watching for the first green AC bar, not for a price bounce.

Manager Note — W40

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The scorecard and the signal count tell different stories this week, and the read depends on holding both. The W39 book did well: 14 of 24 names finished positive, the average move was +1.3%, and SPY was −0.2% over the same window. That is a clear reversal from W38's scorecard, which closed at 4 of 13 positive with an average of −1.4% against SPY's +1.3%. The gains came from the technology cluster that was already recovering: KLAC (+10.1%), ON (+10.0%), CDNS (+7.7%) and MPWR (+5.3%) all held their S1 flags.

The exits, however, were not wins. Five names lost their signal and none did so on real appreciation. The ranging filter removed CAT (+2.9%). The other four (NKE, MLM, UPS and CC) lost the signal because their AC turned red. That is 80% of exits on deterioration, the same share as last week. The discipline is trimming names that failed to hold while the survivors in higher percentile ranges carried the average.

The field widened to 34 signals, but it is still entirely S1 and there is still no confirmation. Fifteen of the 34 are new this week, and many of them are not at the lows. LMT, BA, RTX and GE entered alongside industrial names already on the list, and CCL and RCL joined NCLH to put three cruise lines on the S1 list. Behind the active list, the pre-radar pool grew from 53 to 60 names at ≤p15 with no signal. It is still led by staples (12), with consumer discretionary (10) and real estate (10) tied behind it, then communications (8). BSX, TTD and NKE all sit at p0% in that group.

So the posture into W41 stays patient. A rising signal count with no S2 confirmation means setups are forming, not that they are resolving, and 11 of the 15 new names are above p30, already off their lows, which leaves less room to enter cleanly. We stay in paper mode with no open positions. W41 is the decision week for the candidates: what matters is whether any of the 34 produces the first AC zero-cross, and whether the pre-radar staples and real-estate cluster starts to turn into S1 signals.

Published: 2026-10-02