Williams AO/AC Signals W43 2026 — 90 Signals Across 12 Sectors

Edition 27 · 2026-10-23

W42 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W42. Prices measured from the last weekly close of W42 (2026-10-16) to the last weekly close of W43 (2026-10-23). Polygon weekly bars — last trading day of the week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = last weekly close of W42 (2026-10-16). W43 Close = last weekly close 2026-10-23. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 11 escalated · 15 lost signal · 50 holding · 47 of 76 positive · Avg Δ: +0.7% · SPY W42→W43: -0.4%

Exit Analysis — W42 Signals

🔴 ANALYSIS — Did the 15 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

Summary: 3 real appreciation (20%) · 5 range (33%) · 7 no price support / deterioration (47%)

Notable: GEV (-11.5%) did not lose its signal because the setup resolved — it lost it because the deterioration deepened. Worth monitoring in W44 as a continuation of negative momentum.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

90 active signals across 365 tickers analyzed — 24.7% of the universe.

The field widened for the third week in a row: 90 active signals, up from 78 in W42 and 72 in W41, and the widest count among the published editions. The count is not a data artifact: 365 of the 366 tickers in the universe were scanned, and the CSV reconciles exactly to 74 S1 plus 16 S2 degraded.

The turnover matters more than the headline. Of the 90, 62 carried over from W42 and 28 are new, while 16 names left the list. Industrials, consumer discretionary and real estate each hold 11 names, followed by materials and biotech (XBI) with 10 each and staples with 9. The new entries skew toward biotech (5), energy (4) and materials (4), so the broadening is moving away from last week's defensive core.

Confirmation activity also grew. S2 degraded went from 9 to 16, and there are still zero pure S2 entries. For W44 the question is whether any of the 74 S1 names produces the first pure S2, with the AO still falling when the AC crosses.

Follow-Up — W42 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W43 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 90 tickers the model flagged as priority for W44 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to the 104-week (2-year) range).

Decision week: W44.

S2 Signals — Week 43

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 16 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

17 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W44.

The Universe

366 tickers in universe · 365 scanned · 13 sectors Not scanned this week: WBD Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 74
• S2 degraded: 16
• S2 pure: 0
• Signal tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 45

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

Home Depot (HD): the housing pair confirms while the business is still waiting for housing.

Why HD this week. HD moved from S1 to S2D at p25, with AO at −28.43 and AC at +0.49 (green). Lowe's (LOW) made the same move at p17 and sits next to it in the S2D table, so the radar is reading the home-improvement pair, not one stock. HD is the larger name and the cleaner business, which is why it gets the deep dive. The signal is moderate: the AC cross is thin at +0.49, whereas LOW's is +1.92.

The Business. Home Depot calls itself the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, with fiscal 2025 net sales of $164.7 billion and more than 2,300 retail stores in the United States (source: the company's investor relations page, ir.homedepot.com). The moat is scale, supply-chain reach and its professional-customer relationships.

Why depressed.

1. Housing turnover is frozen. On the Q2 call in August the CFO described "frozen housing market conditions" (CNBC, 2026-08-18), and big-ticket remodeling follows home sales.
2. Growth is thin. Q2 fiscal 2026 sales were $47.9 billion, up 5.7%, but comparable sales rose only 1.7% and U.S. comparable sales 1.3% (company press release, 2026-08-18). Part of the sales growth did not come from existing stores.
3. The market has not paid for stability. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and beat expectations, and the stock still sits at p25 of its 104-week range.

The Setup. The AC crossed above zero this week while the AO is still deep negative, and the AO was already recovering when the cross happened, which is why the label is degraded and not pure. The price closed the week at $319.83, up 3.3% from $309.63. Not a buy signal, an alert. A degraded label expires after its confirmation week unless the AC crosses again, and the AC is only 0.49 above zero.

Risk factors.

1. A thin AC cross can reverse. HD's AC sits close to zero, so a small down week removes the confirmation.
2. Housing is the swing factor. Without a recovery in turnover, comparable sales stay near the current low single digits.
3. Last week's S2D class had a weak record. Of the 15 names that lost signal, 7 had no price support or deteriorated, and only 3 showed real appreciation.

The patient investor case. The case is a high-quality operator at the lower part of its two-year range, with guidance intact. It depends on a housing recovery that is not scheduled. The model gives no valuation view, and we do not add one here.

Radar verdict. S2D at p25, decision week W44. The signal strengthens if the AC holds above zero next week with the AO still rising. Reference level: the W42 close of $309.63. A weekly close below it would put the price back under the level where the signal formed. These are reference levels from the weekly bars, not recommendations.

Manager Note — W43

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The scorecard was good on average and ugly underneath. The W42 book finished with 47 of 76 names positive and an average move of +0.7%, against SPY at −0.4%, so it beat the index by 1.1 points. But the tails were heavy: RCUS fell 16.2%, GEV 11.5%, NRG 11.0% and GE 9.0%, while LMT gained 9.4%. Eleven names escalated to S2D, 15 lost the signal and 50 held.

The exits are the part to read carefully. Of the 15 names that lost signal, only 3 (AMCR, HON, CCI) exited on real appreciation, 5 moved in a range, and 7 showed no price support or outright deterioration. GEV is the clearest case: it lost its signal because the AC turned red after an 11.5% drop, which is a breakdown, not a resolution. We will watch whether that negative momentum continues in W44.

The field itself looks different from last week. S2 degraded rose from 9 to 16, with 4 of the 16 in staples (HSY, TAP, STZ, KMB), 3 in industrials and 3 in consumer discretionary, including the HD and LOW pair. The 16 names share one feature: the AC crossed while the AO was already recovering, so none of them is a pure S2. Of the 90 signal names, 45 sit at structural lows (≤p30). The pre-radar pool holds 17 names at ≤p15 with no signal yet, including CMG, FMC, MOS, TTD and ORCL.

Posture into W44 stays patient. A field of 90 with zero pure S2 means setups are forming across many sectors, not resolving, and last week's exits show that confirmation without price support is common. We stay in paper mode with no open positions. No positions added. W44 is about two checks: whether the 16 S2 degraded names hold their confirmation, and whether the first pure S2 appears among the S1 names.

Published: 2026-10-23