Williams AO/AC Signals W44 2026 — 77 Signals Across 13 Sectors

Edition 28 · 2026-10-30

W43 Scorecard

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Published candidates from last week. No edits. No omissions.

Performance of all Category A candidates named in W43. Prices measured from the last weekly close of W43 (2026-10-23) to the last weekly close of W44 (2026-10-30). Polygon weekly bars — last trading day of the week.

Result key: ✓ escalation · ✗ signal lost · — holding/no position. Entry Reference = last weekly close of W43 (2026-10-23). W44 Close = last weekly close 2026-10-30. Source: radar.db weekly_bars.

Scorecard summary: 22 escalated · 24 lost signal · 42 holding · 59 of 88 positive · Avg Δ: +2.1% · SPY W43→W44: -0.6%

Exit Analysis — W43 Signals

🔴 ANALYSIS — Did the 24 names that lost signal exit on real appreciation or noise?

Summary: 6 real appreciation (25%) · 5 range (21%) · 13 no price support / deterioration (54%)

Notable: XYL (-15.0%) did not lose its signal because the setup resolved — it lost it because the deterioration deepened. Worth monitoring in W45 as a continuation of negative momentum.

Portfolio Tracker

🟢 LIVE POSITIONS — Actual entries with real or paper capital. Updated every week.

Mode: Paper

The Number of the Week

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

77 active signals across 365 tickers analyzed — 21.1% of the universe.

The count fell from 90 signals in W43 to 77 in W44, 13 fewer, and the share of the universe went from roughly a quarter to 21.1%. The drop is not a fading field, it is a field that is moving through its stages. The scorecard shows 24 names lost their signal and 22 escalated to S2D, so the S2D group grew from 16 to 23 while the S1 pool shrank to 54. Zero names are pure S2. A smaller count with more names in the later stage is the opposite of a market in retreat: setups are advancing. Next week the question is how many of the 23 hold their AC above zero, and whether any of the 54 S1 names produces the first pure S2.

Follow-Up — W43 Key Names

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

W44 Candidates — Category A

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT — Algorithm-generated. Not editorial picks.

The 77 tickers the model flagged as priority for W45 monitoring. Ordered by price percentile (lower = more depressed relative to the 104-week (2-year) range).

Decision week: W45.

S2 Signals — Week 44

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

Pure S2 — Full Confirmation

None this week.

S2 Degraded — 23 Tickers

Pre-Radar — Approaching the Signal

🔴 MODEL OUTPUT

16 tickers at structural lows (≤p15) with no active signal yet. Names to watch heading into W45.

The Universe

366 tickers in universe · 365 scanned · 13 sectors Not scanned this week: WBD Sectors covered: XLU, XLI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLC, XLRE, IBB, XBI Market reference: SPY

Active signals by type:

• S1 active: 54
• S2 degraded: 23
• S2 pure: 0
• Signal tickers at structural lows (≤p30): 37

The Ticker of the Week — Deep Dive

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Editorial interpretation. Not model output.

Carrier Global (CARR): the signal fired in the same week the company raised its guidance and the stock fell.

Why CARR this week. CARR moved from S1 to S2D at p4, the lowest percentile of any S2D name this week, and it sits among the 23 S2D names in the table above. It was already flagged by the radar through the September weeks at p26, p20 and p17, so the signal is a continuation of a long compression, not a one-week event. The business is a known brand with a clear moat, which meets the third criterion.

The Business. Carrier describes itself as a global leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions. In the third quarter of 2026 it reported net sales of $6.26 billion, up 12% (organic up 15%), across Climate Solutions Americas, Europe and the other segments (source: Carrier press release, 2026-10-29, prnewswire.com). The moat is installed base, distribution and the commercial HVAC franchise.

Why depressed.

1. The stock fell 4.6% in the week, from $56.24 to $53.63, in the same week it reported. The market did not reward the quarter.
2. The reported GAAP result was a loss. Operating profit was a loss of $2,273 million and GAAP EPS was a loss of $3.16, because of a goodwill impairment charge (Carrier press release, 2026-10-29).
3. Part of the adjusted gain is not operating. The company recorded about $130 million of operating profit benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, and adjusted EPS includes about $0.10 from them (same release).
4. The company itself says increased input costs and tariffs partly offset the margin gain.

The Setup. The AC crossed above zero this week with the AO already recovering, which is why the label is degraded and not pure. Not a buy signal, an alert. A degraded label expires after its confirmation week unless the AC crosses again, and one week of price weakness against the cross is a reason to be careful.

Risk factors.

1. The price went down while the signal went up. The cross is technical and the close of $53.63 is below the $56.24 reference of last week.
2. Quality of earnings. The adjusted figures include tariff refunds that will not repeat, and the GAAP line shows the impairment.
3. The data-center story is the optimism in the price. Carrier reports data center orders up about 300% and a record backlog above $8.5 billion, and expectations built on that backlog leave less room for a miss.
4. Last week's exits had a weak record: of the 24 names that lost signal, 13 had no price support or deteriorated and only 6 showed real appreciation.

The patient investor case. The case rests on the backlog and the guidance. The company now expects full-year sales of nearly $24 billion with organic growth of about 10%, up from a little over $23 billion in its prior outlook (Q3 2026 earnings call, Benzinga transcript, 2026-10). That is a business growing at a double-digit pace sitting near the bottom of its two-year range. The model gives no valuation view and we do not add one here.

Radar verdict. S2D at p4, decision week W45. The signal strengthens if the AC holds above zero next week with the AO still rising. Reference level: the W43 close of $56.24, which the price has not recovered. A weekly close below the $53.63 close of this week would put the price under the level where the signal formed. These are reference levels from the weekly bars, not recommendations.

Manager Note — W44

🟡 ANALYST COMMENTARY — Portfolio manager's macro read. Not model output.

The W43 book had a good week on every headline measure. Of 88 names, 59 were positive and the average move was +2.1%, against SPY at -0.6%, so the book beat the index by 2.7 points. The winners were broad: OLN gained 12.4%, HUN 9.5%, TMUS 6.8% and MGM 6.8%. Twenty-two names escalated to S2D, 24 lost the signal and 42 held.

The exits are where the caution belongs. Of the 24 names that lost signal, only 6 (25%) exited on real appreciation, led by RRC at +20.0%, and 13 (54%) showed no price support or deteriorated. The deteriorations were large: XYL fell 15.0%, PINS 13.3% and BA 8.9%. XYL is the clearest case, because it did not lose its signal by resolving. It lost it as the AC turned red, and it now appears in the pre-radar at p0%, which means it is back at the bottom of its range with no signal. We flagged it last week as a name to watch for continued negative momentum, and it did continue.

The shape of the field changed. S2 degraded rose from 16 to 23, and none of the 23 is a pure S2. Materials is the largest group with four names (RPM, OLN, HUN, LYB), followed by utilities, staples, and industrials with three each. Utilities is worth a note: EIX, NRG and PCG all show the AC crossing with the AO already recovering. Of the 77 signal names, 37 sit at structural lows (p30 or lower). The pre-radar pool holds 16 names at p15 or lower with no signal yet, including ALNY, ARE, BSX, TTD and XYL, all at p0%.

Posture into W45 stays patient. The field shrank from 90 to 77 while its stage advanced, which is progress, but a week of good average returns with a majority of weak exits says confirmation and price do not always arrive together. CARR is a live example: the company raised guidance and the stock fell. We stay in paper mode with no open positions. No positions added. W45 is about two checks: whether the 23 S2 degraded names hold their AC above zero, and whether the first pure S2 appears among the 54 S1 names.

Published: Friday, October 30, 2026

Published: 2026-10-30